Stocks to Watch, Jan. 25: Microsoft, eBay and Netflix

January 30th, 2007

SAN FRANCISCOAmong the companies whose shares are expected to see active trade in Thursday’s session are Microsoft Corp., eBay Inc. and Netflix Inc.

AT&T Inc. () is expected to report earnings per share for the fourth quarter, according to analysts polled by Thomson First Call.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. () is expected to post per-share income of 16 cents for the fourth quarter.

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Dow Jones & Co. () , the publisher of this report, is expected to report earnings per share of 43 cents for the fourth quarter.

Federated Investors Inc. () is expected to report fourth-quarter per-share income of 48 cents.

Ford Motor Co. () is expected to post a per-share loss of $1.01 for the fourth quarter.

Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. () is expected to report per-share income of $2.26 for the fourth quarter.

Microsoft () is expected to post second-quarter per-share income of 23 cents.

Northrop Grumman Corp. () is expected to report earnings per share of $1.26 for the fourth quarter.

St. Jude Medical Inc. () is expected to post fourth-quarter income of 39 cents per share.

Stanley Works () is expected to report earnings per share of 98 cents for the fourth quarter.

After Wednesday’s closing bell, eBay () reported fourth-quarter profit climbed 24 percent as sales rose more than expected, helped by a surge in its electronic-payments business and higher prices for the items eBay sells online.

Watch List

AllianceBernstein Holding LP () reported its profits jumped a record 45.1 percent in the fourth quarter, aided by $10.6 billion in net inflows and a 23.9 percent boost in assets under management.

American International Group Inc. () said it offered to buy the 38.1 percent of 21st Century Insurance Group that it doesn’t already own for roughly $690 million in cash.

AmeriCredit Corp. () said second-quarter net income rose, as revenue gained, to $95.4 million, or 74 cents a share, from $86.6 million, or 59 cents a share, during the same period in the prior year.

Charles Schwab Corp. () said it has approved the buyback of up to an additional $500 million of the company’s stock.

Corning Inc. () said James Houghton will step down as non-executive chairman of the board at the company’s annual shareholders meeting on April 26.

CPI Corp. () said total reported net sales for the eight-week period ended Jan. 7 fell 3 percent compared with the same period last year.

Cypress Semiconductor Corp. () said it has approved a new stock repurchase program of up to $300 million, effective immediately.

Ev3 Inc. () said the Food and Drug Administration has approved the Protege RX Carotid Stent. The stent, when used in conjunction with the ev3 embolic protection device, is indicated for the treatment of carotid artery disease in patients who are at high-risk for adverse events.

Fair Isaac Corp. () said first-quarter net income rose, as revenue gained and the income tax provision fell, to $31.2 million, or 52 cents a share, from $28.5 million, or 43 cents a share, during the same period in the prior year.

Hexcel Corp. () reported fourth-quarter net income of $19 million compared with $136.4 million during the same period a year ago. Revenue at the structural materials company rose 7.5 percent to $299.2 million from $278.2 million.

Kirby Corp. () reported fourth-quarter net earnings of $23.9 million, or 45 cents a share, compared with $19.8 million, 38 cents a share, in the same period last year, boosted by strong engine services sales.

LSI Logic Corp. () said its quarterly profit rose 55 percent, helped by lower costs and sales of its data storage chips.

MTS Systems Corp. () reported fiscal first-quarter net earnings of $10.1 million, or 54 cents a share, up 27 percent from $7.96 million, or 40 cents a share, in the year-ago period.

Shares of online DVD rental pioneer Netflix () rose 9 percent after the company announced fourth-quarter results that topped most analysts’ expectations, and exceeded its 2006 year-end subscriber goal.

NetLogic Microsystems Inc. () said fourth-quarter net income fell, as research and development expenses rose, to $1.53 million, or 7 cents a share, from $4.98 million, or 26 cents a share, during the same period in the prior year.

Polycom Inc. () reported fourth-quarter net earnings of $25.8 million, or 28 cents a share, compared with $9.27 million, or 10 cents a share, in the same period last year, boosted by higher sales.

Qualcomm Inc. () saw earnings rise nearly 5 percent in its first fiscal quarter, which the company credited to strong demand for wireless phones that use the company’s chipsets and software.

Rambus Inc. () reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $51.7 million, up 24 percent from the same period a year ago.

Ryland Group Inc. () and Meritage Homes Corp. () said their quarterly profits fell from a year earlier as builders reel in their balance sheets to adjust to slower activity in the U.S. housing market.

Silicon Storage Technology Inc. () said fourth-quarter pre tax earnings were $4.7 million, compared with $10.2 million in the same period last year. The maker of memory products added net revenues were $117.8 million, down from $133.2 million last year.

Security and storage software maker Symantec Corp. () said third quarter profit and revenue rose ahead of analyst expectations, and it plans to begin trimming costs as a result of weak sales to businesses.

Talx Corp. () reported third-quarter net earnings of $8.73 million, or 27 cents a share, up 18 percent from $7.64 million, or 22 cents a share, during the year-ago period.

Teradyne Inc. () reported fourth-quarter net earnings of $10.9 million, or 6 cents a share, compared with $224.1 million, or $1.07 cents a share, in the same period last year, as revenue dropped and expenses rose.

Textron Inc. () said better sales and pricing for its Citation business jets gave a lift to fourth-quarter earnings, overriding charges at its Bell Helicopter unit. But its earnings outlook fell shy of expectations.

Trident Microsystems Inc. () reported second-quarter revenue of $70.2 million, compared with $40.6 million during the year-ago period. The chipmaker also said it has concluded that actual measurement dates of certain stock option grants issued in the past have differed from the recorded grant dates of such awards.

W. R. Grace & Co. () reported fourth-quarter net earnings of $5 million, or 7 cents per basic share. During the same period a year ago, the chemicals company posted a net loss of $600,000, or a penny per basic share.

Copyright (c) 2006 MarketWatch, Inc.

Is Google Headed for $630?

January 30th, 2007

A year ago to the day, prominent Internet analyst Safa Rashtchy drew headlines and wonder by predicting Google would hit $600 a share in 2006. That wasn’t exactly the case, as the Mountain View (Calif.) company rose about 6% to close the year at $460.48. Now, in what’s becoming an annual tradition, on Jan. 3 Rashtchy has again hiked his target on Google (http://host.businessweek.com/businessweek/Corporate_Snapshot.html?Symbol=GOOG), this time to $630 per share.

Rashtchy of Piper Jaffray says his target price hasn’t seen reality yet because of the sector, not Google. “There was rotation away from the Internet,” he says. “That was largely the reason there was less interest in all these stocks.” “A Virtuous Cycle”

He still believes the company’s revenue will continue growing, thanks to expansion efforts such as Gmail, the company’s free Web-based e-mail, and the map service Google Maps. He says those products will draw more users to Google and make its brand more meaningful beyond its core business as an Internet search engine. Piper Jaffray (http://host.businessweek.com/businessweek/Corporate_Snapshot.html?Symbol=PJC) which has done investment banking work for Google in the past year, recently surveyed 337 Internet users, in which it found that 49% of respondents use at least one Google product aside from search. A quarter used at least two.

“While Google’s partnership strategy and monetization improvement trajectory are well understood by investors, we do not believe investors fully understand the impact of Google’s non-search related product extension strategy,” Rashtchy wrote Jan. 3 in a note to clients. As a result, “consumer adoption of non-search-related products creates a virtuous cycle of brand affinity that drives incremental search volume.” In other words, the more you use Gmail, share photos with Picasa, or get directions to a new club with Google Maps, the more likely you are to feel good about Google’s free services—and, by using them, eventually drive more cash to the company.

Another trend Piper Jaffray sees: search becoming a more important component of Web surfing. Whereas people once used a search engine for research or to locate a business, such sites are now becoming “the dominant navigation method”—that is, essentially used as a browser—by many, according to the brokerage’s survey. Other Optimists

To arrive at his new price target, Rashtchy is betting that Google will grow by 35 times his 2008 pro forma earnings per share estimate of $18.06, instead of the 43 times growth multiple he used previously. He explained his decision by mentioning things like the limited visibility of the nearly 24-month time frame and the increasingly large scale of Google’s business.

Rashtchy is more optimistic than most. His estimate on Google’s earnings for 2008 amounts to $16.59 per share. The mean analyst estimate amounted to $13.75 per share, according to the San Francisco research firm StarMine, which aggregates data from Thomson Financial (http://host.businessweek.com/businessweek/Corporate_Snapshot.html?Symbol=TOC).

The stock reached a 52-week high of $513 just before Thanksgiving and pulled back by year’s end. And $630 isn’t even the loftiest Google target out there. Derek Brown, an equity analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, opened coverage of the stock in December, 2006, with a $650 price target. Brown figures a multiple of 35 to 40 times price to pro forma earnings per share is justified given a three-year revenue growth rate of 40%, “long-term industry dynamics, and comparable company valuations.”

“We fully recognize that the party at Google has to end sometime,” Brown wrote in a Dec. 21 research note. “Yet, we see no obvious signs that Google’s business has hit the proverbial wall or that consumers and advertisers are radically shifting their behavior away from Google and toward its competitors.”

A year ago, Rashtchy’s confident call mobilized Google’s boosters, elevating the shares 5%, to $434, by the close of trading that day (see BusinessWeek.com, 1/4/06, ). Rashtchy’s call this year didn’t pack quite the same punch in the market as it did in 2006. Google’s stock closed on Jan. 3 near $467.59 on the Nasdaq, up 1.5% compared with the previous session’s close. Bear in the Wilderness?

Rich Summer, an analyst at the research firm Morningstar (http://host.businessweek.com/businessweek/Corporate_Snapshot.html?Symbol=MORN), calls himself “a lone bear” on Google. He thinks the shares are fairly valued at $315 apiece, noting that nearly all Google’s revenue comes from online advertising. As far as he’s concerned, that means Google hasn’t yet created any business outside search that has spurred new growth beyond advertising.

Summer also points out that Google has been growing more slowly in recent years. He forecasts that the company’s revenue increased by only around 70% in 2006, compared with 90% in 2005, just over 100% in 2004, more than 200% in 2003, and 400% in 2002.

Meanwhile, Google has been spending substantial amounts of its huge cash horde recently on building up areas such as its server capacity and data farms. The company paid out $1.5 billion on capital expenditures in 2006, Summer estimates, compared with only $300 million in 2004. And he’s not sure how much new cash those investments will attract in the future.

“The company has remarkable growth ahead,” Summer says. “But the price reflects that—as well as a bunch of pipe dreams.”

Is Debt a Four-Letter Word?

January 30th, 2007

Is Debt a Four-Letter Word? Why Some Americans Need to Learn to Pay Up By JOHN STOSSEL and MARC DORIAN

Jan. 18, 2007 - We’ve all heard the terrible stories about the evil bill collectors, and some of them are true. There are some collectors who break the law by calling in the middle of the night or threatening people, but there is another side to the story.

Rick Doane runs Sunrise Credit Services, and he knows what people say about bill collectors.

When I asked if he thinks people hate his industry, Doane told me, “I would say that that’s not too strong of a word.”

Watch “Flat Broke: Begging And Borrowing In America” Friday on “20/20″ at 10 p.m. ET

At parties, when he tells people what he does, Rick Doane says they routinely turn away from him.

“They tend to walk away pretty quick,” he said.

And I’m not surprised, because his employees do bug people over the phone, saying things like:

“How close to $638 do you have at this point?”

“Do you have equity in your home?”

“You are telling me no, but you haven’t tried!” In response, people often curse them out, insult them and their families and even make jokes about their weight.

“Yelling and screaming like children,” one collector remarked.

“We take abuse pretty consistently,” Doane said.

Keeping Up Morale

To keep his collectors from quitting, Doane stages little celebrations to cheer them up. When one bill collector recoups a big payment, he announces the success to the rest of the group, and star collectors win prizes like a free tank of gas. He has to do this to keep up morale, Doane said, because people hate them.

When I reminded Doane that there are debt collectors who call people at night and are abusive, he replied that “every industry has rogue people within their industry.”

To make sure his workers don’t do what those “rogue” bill collectors do, he, and many collection agencies, require workers to go through hours of training.

But even if they follow the law, bill collectors still have a nasty job to do, even though Doane said, “we do good.”

Good? Well, yes, they actually do good.

Small businesses — like a blinds and drapes store run by Preston Petty — say they’d have to raise prices if bill collectors didn’t get their slow-paying customers to pay.

“People who are conscientious and pay on time wind up paying a higher price because of the bad debts of those few who don’t pay on time,” explained Petty.

“We create money that goes back into the economy. That helps people,” Doane told me. ‘Stop the Stupid!’

And some people do really need that help. Radio host Dave Ramsey counsels debtors. He gives them tough love, because, he said, many are acting stupidly.

“You gotta stop the stupid! Because stupid attracts his other two brothers: desperate and broke!” said Ramsey.

He was once one of the stupid people, he said. Ramsey once had a successful real estate business, but he said he lost “everything [he] owned.” “I know what it feels like when people call us that are pounded and pushed and crushed,” he explained.

Now Ramsey tells people who come to hear his seminars how he fell into debt and tries to teach others not to make the mistakes he made.

“We were bankrupt. It ripped my guts out,” he said at one seminar.

Easy Credit

Part of the problem, Ramsey said, is the new world of easy credit, such as credit card offers that come in the mail.

This is a new temptation, said Eric Schurenberg of Money magazine.

“Think about how loans used to be…extended,” he said.

And he’s right. There was a time when you’d have to go into a bank to borrow money, and face a loan officer you might even know. You would have to explain why you wanted it, and represent yourself as being able to pay it back.

“There was shame attached to not paying back your debts,” explained Schurenberg.

But with the popularity of credit cards in the 1970s, things began to change.

Dave Ramsey said we have become an instant gratification culture.

“I want it! I want it! I want it! I want it right now!” he said.

“It doesn’t matter if you’re 14 or you’re 54. There’s some stupidity to buying stuff [with] money you don’t have.”

But people do it anyway, and Rick Doane has to put his 400 bill collectors to work. And even that isn’t a solution, because most of what is owed, is never paid.

“On average, about 20 percent of what is out there, we’ll collect, as an industry,” estimated Doane.

At the end of the day, Doane believes his industry does do some good.

” I am truly proud to be a collector,” he said. “I truly believe there’s a huge difference that we make. We get thank you letters, each and every day, from debtors who say, ‘thank you, thank you for helping me through this.’”

It’s All Based on Trust

The fact is America was built on debt. Business loans allowed entrepreneurs to create all the enterprises that make our lives better. Borrowing in the form of mortgages has allowed millions of Americans to realize their dream of owning a home.

But it’s all based on trust. Trust that a borrower will pay the money back. When borrowers don’t pay it back it makes it tougher for all of us to get that mortgage, finance the car or build a business. So the bill collectors do us all a favor. They help make the system work.