WASHINGTON—Despite record fuel prices above $3 per gallon, more Americans will travel by car over the holiday weekend than a year ago, according to a survey by travel agency AAA.

In a sign that energy costs will affect behavior, however, said travelers are planning to stay closer to home and take shorter trips. Travel-related expenses for U.S. households are expected average nearly $600.

AAA forecast that 38.3 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more, an increase of 1.7 percent from last year. Roughly 32.1 million travelers Д or 84 percent of the total Д will drive, up 1.8 percent from last year, AAA said.

The AAA estimate is based on the results of a national survey of 2,000 adults.

The number of Americans traveling by plane is expected to rise by 1 percent to 4.4 million. The remaining travelers will get to their destinations by bus or train.

“High gas prices and increased vacation costs won’t deter Americans from traveling this Memorial Day,” , vice president of travel for AAA, said in a statement. “Families will travel closer to home, they will travel for fewer days and will save money by staying in less expensive hotels and eating in cheaper restaurants, but they will continue to take vacations and plan getaways.”

The average retail price of unleaded gasoline nationwide was $3.10 per gallon on Wednesday, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service.

Experts disagree over how high prices have to rise before consumers are shocked into driving less Д at least temporarily. Some say that $3.50 per gallon would cause consumers to cut back, while others say $4 per gallon is a more crucial tipping point.

Only during the first week of May, when prices jumped to $3.05 a gallon, did demand for gasoline abate slightly Д by about two-hundredths of a percent, government data show.

AAA predicted flights over the holiday weekend would be 5 percent less expensive than a year ago, at an average of $166 per round-trip ticket. Rental cars are expected to be 16 percent less expensive than last year, averaging $31 a day, but hotels are projected to be 13 percent more expensive than last year.

How a beloved football team fares can have a profound psychological effect on fans - and their everyday spending, write John Elder and Jacinta Hannaford.

DEPENDING on how the Cats go in the finals, the city of Geelong will either go off like a two-pot screamer or sink into a collective depression. And to some degree, the rest of Victoria, having lost “our” game to national ambition, will follow suit. Will a Victorian win in this year’s final be good for business?

It’s part of footy folklore that when Geelong does well on the field, the locals spend up confidently in the shops. “It seems that people start to feel lucky that their fortunes have changed,” says Deakin University anthropologist Rohan Bastin. “I’ve been living in Geelong for two years and one of the things I’ve wondered is whether you could generate the data to see an increase in people buying Lotto tickets on Saturdays (during the long winning streak).

“I’ve been in a newsagent after a win game and they’re busy as blazes. There’s a real buzz: ‘The Cats have won and I’m going to win too.’ The people who ran the newsagency didn’t have to listen to the radio to know Geelong had won. There are really very strong markers of the mood.”

Because Geelong has previously ridden the roller-coaster of looking certain to win the cup only to crash on grand final day Dr Bastin suggests the team, along with the township, is protecting itself emotionally by keeping their claims to victory low-key. “They’ve been so accustomed to being disappointed, when they’ve been the best team and got to the grand final and been flogged. This year they’re the best team and they’re keeping the lid on it. If they win it, there will be unrestrained exultation.”

Anthropologists call this “collective effervescence” a term coined by Emile Derheim 95 years ago to explain religious fervour. In short, daily life is a grind but when we gather around the fire or television set in the name of a higher power, a sense of excitement takes over.

“Collective effervescence is how forms of human solidarity manifest,” says Dr Bastin, a Hawks fan.

“In primitive societies, where effectively everyone is leading the same kind of life, the solidarity that exists tends to work itself out on kinship lines. In complex societies (some people earning millions, others on the dole) people belong to segments that fit together like organs of the body. The forms of solidarity work themselves out through more complex arrangements. Central to this is celebrating rituals, where you abandon the normal social conventions and the usual barriers come down. Like on New Year’s Eve where everybody kisses everybody else.”

What about collective misery in the face of defeat? “Looking beyond Geelong if we end up with a West Coast versus Sydney grand final, the despair has a fantastic potential to reappear. There will be royal commissions. We had the situation early this year when (AFL chief Andrew Demetriou) was demanding an inquiry into why Victorian teams weren’t doing very well. As soon as the Victorian clubs started succeeding, it stopped being an issue.”

On the darker side, personal despair over a sporting loss can be fatal. “If you look at the history of the World Cup and how Uruguay, having won cups in the ’40s and ’50s, then failed to qualify and there were suicides, I get concerned at those sorts of stories ”

Community psychologist Heather Gridley says the dark side of losing, from a fan’s point of view, can lead to “kick-the-cat syndrome”.

“I’ve heard reports from the refuge down there that domestic violence goes up whenever Geelong loses. Not that it’s contained to Geelong. Somebody has to lose every week and there’s been documented reports of domestic violence spiking in northern towns in England during the football season,” Ms Gridley says.

The link between domestic violence and sporting failure is a contentious one, but it bobs up regularly in Europe and the US without the support of hard data. It’s largely anecdotal. Leaving violence aside, the dashed hopes of an ordinary fan in Geelong where the Ford factory is cutting hundreds of jobs will be keenly felt. “It’s a sudden return to reality that can’t even be put off until Monday,” says Ms Gridley.

Sometimes a community’s need for a boost seems to galvanise a team to heroic action.

Ms Gridley points to Iraq winning the Asia Cup, and to England winning the Ashes just a few days after the London bombings. “You’d imagine there was a huge boost in morale.”

What’s the psychology of the boost? “Men in particular identify with their teams. Women get excited too, I’m a bit of a tragic myself (Carlton). But men like to take the credit for a winning game. It’s revelling in reflected glory, as if they were out on the field themselves. If you’ve got not much else to feel great about football is what you’ve got left.”

Do Melbourne and Victoria at large stand to gain emotionally from a Geelong (or Hawthorn) win?

Heather Gridley doesn’t want to “count the chickens” by hoping too loudly for an all-Victorian grand final, “but wouldn’t it be lovely? If it happens there’ll be more people on the streets, more people wearing scarves, more people selling pies. All of Melbourne will go off.”

Arthur Veno, honorary research fellow at Monash University, says fans take pride in supporting a winner they believe they have done their bit to get the team over the line. Recently honoured by the Australian Psychological Society for his distinguished contribution to community psychology, Dr Veno says: “There’s a correlation in terms of pride, self-respect and having something to barrack for. Sport provides a collective goal among many diverse subcultures and many communities.

“The amount of professional women that talk about the teams is astounding to me. It’s something that’s really deep within us, that gives us a feeling of the ritual of warfare played out on the field. It moves the various members of the community to put aside differences and join in by supporting and rejoicing with their teams.”

Sociologist Tim Marjoribanks, who backs the Adelaide Crows, says “even though footy is now a national competition, there’s still a tribal feel operating at a state level”.

“It’s a genuine concern for people as to who has the bragging rights.

“If Victorian teams are doing well there’s a perception that Victoria is doing well. This translates to a sense of wellbeing,” he says.

27 mins Two seasons ago, United more or less conceded the title to Chelsea when they drew 0-0 at home with Sunderland (the worst team in the history of the Premier League) in one of their final matches of the season. There has been little to suggest that the scoreline won’t be the same again, with Sunderland lining up as Reading did on the opening weekend when they rendered United’s attack impotent.

25 mins If this was the first football match you ever watched, you’d wonder why the whole world is so obsessed with the sport.

23 mins Patrice Evra absolutely clatters Michael Chopra, but the ref waves play on. That’s the first sign of urgency or passion from the champions, prompting the crowd to chant: “Attack! Attack! Attack, attack, attack!” The team is unresponsive.

21 mins «imdb.com» times a tackle perfectly as Nani does a couple of stepovers before trying to saunter past the right-back. Keane applauds from the other side of the pitch and then returns to his seat. He is rightly content at Sunderland’s start.

19 mins Anderson’s barely had a kick, but he finally gets one here. Unfortunately his attempted cross-field pass is more Gerrard than Beckham, landing in the fifth row of the East Stand.

17 mins “Welcome to the Premier League, big boy,” says Nemanja Vidic as he hacks at the back of Kenwyne Jones’s legs. From the subsequent free-kick, Jones attempts an overhead kick which would best be described as “interesting”. Or “pathetic”. “I cannot possibly believe this,” says Richard Wood, talking about the haircuts of United strike duo. “Granted I can’t actually think of any worse off the top of my head, but bearing in mind this is English football we’re talking about, I have serious difficulty imagining that there has never been a more stylistically-challenged duo up front in the last 15 years. Mark Hughes played in the Premiership, you know.” Name me a worse pair. Go on.

14 mins It’s been all United thus far, but Craig Gordon has barely touched the ball in the Sunderland goal, causing the commentator to mention already that Louis Saha is on the bench. United couldn’t be more toothless up front if they re-signed Joe Jordan.

11 mins Crikey, it really is old boys’ day at United - the director just cut to a shot of Andy Cole sitting in the crowd, unsurprisingly looking on moodily. Indeed, Sunderland are playing with the kind of lack of mobility associated with old boys teams when they return to school to take on the new 1st XI, with United buzzing around like the fleet-footed youngsters.

9 mins Yorke, who isn’t remembered quite as fondly at Old Trafford as Keane or Solskjaer for his huge part in United winning the Champions League, is at the heart of a first prolonged spell of possession for Sunderland. It doesn’t go anywhere, though. “Noticing that Anderson is playing today, I wonder how many dreadlocked players ther are in the Premier League,” wonders Steve Cummins. “Could a dread XI be put out?” I’ll need help with that. My favourite was always Regi Blinker.

7 mins The picture goes somewhat fuzzy as my colleague Scott Murray repatedly bangs the desk with his fist, but I can just make out Dickson Etuhu streaking down the right before blasting a shot wide. “In response to poor Archi Campbell’s lament, perhaps playing Eagles is SAF’s way of putting him in the shop window for Keane to sign,” chuckles Aron Darmody. And there’s more. “Also, although Solskjaer has supposedly retired, you know Keane is still secretly going to try to sign him.”

5 mins Anderson is playing up top with Carlos Tevez, forming without doubt the worst coiffeured strike-partnership in the history of the Premier League. Nani is stationed on the left.

3 mins The pattern is set, with Sunderland camped on the edge of their own box, and United stroking the ball around fluently. Nani has the first shot of the game, but it’s dragged wide of the far post with his left foot.

1 min Here we go then. Forgetting the various sub-plots, it should be noted that this is something of a relegation battle: Sunderland are in 17th, while United are just one point above the relegation zone.

“Eagles?” says Archi Campbell. “Why? Why oh why oh why?” Tinkering is Fergie’s biggest sin. That and littering the ground with his chewing gum wrappers.

Sentimentality is flowing around Old Trafford. First a teary-eyed Keane (allow for a little poetic licence) acknowledges the “Keano! Keano! Keano!” chants with a regal wave, and then the newly-retired Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is given a guard of honour by the teams and a hug apiece from Ferguson and Keane. It’s just a shame Clive Tyldesley isn’t doing the (minute-by-minute) commentary really.

Teams Anderson gets his first start in United red, while Kenwyne Jones (6m for a player who didn’t even excel in the Championship?!?!) and Danny Higginbotham make their Sunderland debuts. Indeed, Higginbotham is one of three ex-United players in the visitos’ line-up.

Man Utd Van der Sar, Brown, Ferdinand, Vidic, Evra, Eagles, Hargreaves, Scholes, Nani, Anderson, Tevez.
Subs Kuszczak, Saha, Carrick, O’Shea, Fletcher.

Sunderland Gordon, Nosworthy, McShane, Higginbotham, Collins, Leadbitter, Yorke, Etuhu, Wallace, Chopra, Jones. Subs
Ward, Stokes, Murphy, Miller, Kay.

Referee Martin Atkinson (W Yorkshire)

Preamble Hello everyone and welcome to the best match-up you won’t see on Setanta this season (because presumably if you had a TV with Setanta on it, you wouldn’t be sat here reading this). It’s Fergie v Keano, the Obi Wan and Anakin of the Premier League. Although I’m not sure that analogy works, because it casts Niall Quinn as the Emperor, er, Carlos Quieroz, I suppose, as Yoda, and, of course, to most people United are the dark side - actually no, it definitely doesn’t work. Anyway. I was going to write a glowing, semi-eloquent tribute to Keane and his spell at Old Trafford, but kick-off is upon us so that’s going to be put on the back-burner in favour of letting you have the teams.