Vital Signs: Inflation Jitters Spread

September 3rd, 2007

It could be another bumpy ride on Wall Street this week. Investors are getting a case of inflation jitters after Federal Reserve officials, including chairman Ben Bernanke, made it clear that inflation remains the bank’s top concern (see BusinessWeek.com, 6/6/07, http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/jun2007/pi20070606_034575.htm?chan=investing_investing+index+page_economy). That ended hopes for an interest rate cut and caused a sell off in bonds and stocks. More turmoil may be in store for investors with the latest batch of inflation data on tap.

May figures for consumer, producer and import prices could really move the markets. Investors should look past the headline numbers. The consensus among economists is that the topline readings for these price indexes will rise 0.4% to 0.5%. Rather, the markets will be looking at how the prices of goods and services outside of food and energy are behaving. Results undershooting expectations, especially when it comes to the consumer price index, will likely be welcomed by investors. Larger-than-expected numbers could roil the markets by elevating fears of a rate hike later this year.

Any signs that the economy is picking up steam faster than expected could also elicit a big reaction. That raises the potential impact of the May industrial production report and the June Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The Fed believes inflation pressures could rise because there isn’t much excess capacity available. Data showing increased output and higher capacity utilization could make investors even more nervous about inflation and monetary policy.

After chairman Bernanke caused such a stir on June 5, the markets will be sure to tune into his speech on Friday, June 15. What’s more, several other Fed officials, and one ex-chairman, will take to the podium. Former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan speaks on June 12. His remarks this year about China’s stock market, the U.S. housing market and the odds of an economic recession have drawn a lot of attention and rattled stock markets several times. Given Wall Street’s fragile state right now, it probably wouldn’t take much from Greenspan, Bernanke, or any of the upcoming reports to shake up markets some more.

Here’s the weekly economic calendar, from http://www.actioneconomics.com.

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Economic Reports

Report

Date

Time

For

Median Estimate

Last Period

Treasury Budget (billion)

Tuesday, June 12

2 p.m.

May

-$66.0

$177.7

Retail Sales

Wednesday, June 13

8:30 a.m.

May

0.5%

-0.2%

Retail Sales (ex-auto)

Wednesday, June 13

8:30 a.m.

May

0.5%

0.0%

Export Price Index

Wednesday, June 13

8:30 a.m.

May

0.2%

0.3%

Import Price Index

Wednesday, June 13

8:30 a.m.

May

0.4%

1.3%

Business Inventories

Wednesday, June 13

10 a.m.

April

0.3%

-0.1%

PPI

Thursday, June 14

8:30 a.m.

May

0.5%

0.7%

PPI (ex-food & energy)

Thursday, June 14

8:30 a.m.

May

0.2%

0.0%

CPI

Friday, June 15

8:30 a.m.

May

0.5%

0.4%

CPI (ex-food & energy)

Friday, June 15

8:30 a.m.

May

0.2%

0.2%

Empire State Index

Friday, June 15

8:30 a.m.

June

10.0

8.0

Current Account (billion)

Friday, June 15

8:30 a.m.

Q1

-$200.0

-$195.8

Industrial Production

Friday, June 15

9:15 a.m.

May

0.2%

0.7%

Capacity Utilization

Friday, June 15

9:15 a.m.

May

81.5%

81.6%

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary)

Friday, June 15

10 a.m.

June

88.3

88.3

Artist sets tone with awards success

September 3rd, 2007

A YOUNG landscape painter from the Borders has scooped the largest privately-funded art award in the UK.

Anna King, 23, collected the inaugural 20,000 Jolomo Lloyds TSB Scotland Award, with the prize money paid by the popular landscape painter John Lowrie Morrison. More than 80 painters had applied.

Ms King’s appealing landscapes in pale colours, from run-down farm buildings to windmills dotted across the countryside, saw her picked to win the award from a shortlist of nine.

The painter graduated from Dundee’s Duncan of Jordanstone College only two years ago. She has already had several solo gallery shows across Scotland, including one at Edinburgh’s well-known Open Eye Gallery.

Her works have been shown from St Andrews to the Glasgow Art Fair. She has won the Royal Scottish Academy’s student landscape prize. In 2006 she was invited to paint in Joan Eardley’s old studio, the Watch House, at Catterline near Aberdeen.

Duncan Macmillan, The Scotsman’s art critic and an author, yesterday praised Jolomo’s generosity in making the award.

He said: “It’s unlikely to be seen as cutting edge, with Jolomo behind it. On the other hand it is a very good thing to have that chunk of money. It’s going to mean a couple of years when Anna can sit down and work, it will keep her going.”

Guy Peploe, director of the Scottish Gallery, said the award could bring attention to the overlooked art of landscape painting when all the focus was on the “cutting edge”. He said: “There’s no question this is a generous initiative. Twenty-thousand will clearly allow her, if she has a sensitive and mature attitude, if she doesn’t buy a lot of champagne, to buy a lot of studio time.”

Alex Salmond, the First Minister, visited the awards exhibition last night. He said: “This first year of the awards has attracted a wonderful range of high-quality entries, and I congratulate Anna and all those who have taken part.”

In an all-women list of winners, the painter Helen Glassford was in second place, winning 4,000, and in joint third place were Rebecca Firth and Ingrid Fraser, each winning 3,000.

The awards were announced at a dinner last night and Ms King was not available for comment.

The competition included Willie Fulton, painting professionally for the first time at 61, and David Cook, who graduated more than 20 years before Ms King at Dundee.

Artists had to be living or working in Scotland and in most cases studied at a Scottish college of art within the last five years; those without formal qualifications had to be proposed and approved by a suitably-qualified referee.

The prize was seen as the opposite of the Turner Prize for contemporary art. Entrants were asked for up to ten finished landscape paintings and sketches. Morrison has paid all the prize money in the biannual awards, with Lloyds TSB supporting the running of the show.

Morrison said: “Art is influential in our society. My hope is that these awards will be of influence, as the winners are of the highest calibre.

“Anna King’s wonderful work shows great potential to developing further so that she will become part of the next generation of Scottish landscape painters.”

Lescott drafted in as cover

September 3rd, 2007

The Everton defender Joleon Lescott has been drafted into England’s squad for their upcoming Euro 2008 qualifiers against Israel and Russia. The 25-year-old has been in excellent early-season form, scoring twice in victories at Tottenham and, in injury-time on Saturday, against Bolton.

Lescott’s call-up follows the withdrawal of the Portsmouth defender Sol Campbell due to a hamstring injury. He joined Everton from Wolves, where he began his professional career, in June 2006.

Lescott comes into a squad shorn of some more familiar faces in international terms. As well as Campbell, Jamie Carragher has retired from international football, the Tottenham captain, Ledley King, is injured and Middlesbrough defender Jonathan Woodgate was not considered after only just returning to action from injury.

The Birmingham-born Lescott has been key to Everton’s good start to the new Premier League season having climbed to third. The Everton manager, David Moyes, certainly has no doubts over the player’s international credentials and told the Liverpool Echo last week: “Lescott won’t let England down at centre-back or left-back. We’ll keep pushing him and keep trying to get him in, but my job’s hard enough without trying to pick the England team.

“But he doesn’t get beaten, he doesn’t get run, his use of the ball could be better but if you go away and hope your boys at the back will keep you in the game Joleon will certainly do that for you.”

Lescott was included in the B squad which faced Albania on May 25, coming on as a substitute.