Vital Signs: Inflation Jitters Spread
September 3rd, 2007It could be another bumpy ride on Wall Street this week. Investors are getting a case of inflation jitters after Federal Reserve officials, including chairman Ben Bernanke, made it clear that inflation remains the bank’s top concern (see BusinessWeek.com, 6/6/07, http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/jun2007/pi20070606_034575.htm?chan=investing_investing+index+page_economy). That ended hopes for an interest rate cut and caused a sell off in bonds and stocks. More turmoil may be in store for investors with the latest batch of inflation data on tap.
May figures for consumer, producer and import prices could really move the markets. Investors should look past the headline numbers. The consensus among economists is that the topline readings for these price indexes will rise 0.4% to 0.5%. Rather, the markets will be looking at how the prices of goods and services outside of food and energy are behaving. Results undershooting expectations, especially when it comes to the consumer price index, will likely be welcomed by investors. Larger-than-expected numbers could roil the markets by elevating fears of a rate hike later this year.
Any signs that the economy is picking up steam faster than expected could also elicit a big reaction. That raises the potential impact of the May industrial production report and the June Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The Fed believes inflation pressures could rise because there isn’t much excess capacity available. Data showing increased output and higher capacity utilization could make investors even more nervous about inflation and monetary policy.
After chairman Bernanke caused such a stir on June 5, the markets will be sure to tune into his speech on Friday, June 15. What’s more, several other Fed officials, and one ex-chairman, will take to the podium. Former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan speaks on June 12. His remarks this year about China’s stock market, the U.S. housing market and the odds of an economic recession have drawn a lot of attention and rattled stock markets several times. Given Wall Street’s fragile state right now, it probably wouldn’t take much from Greenspan, Bernanke, or any of the upcoming reports to shake up markets some more.
Here’s the weekly economic calendar, from http://www.actioneconomics.com.
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Economic Reports
Report
Date
Time
For
Median Estimate
Last Period
Treasury Budget (billion)
Tuesday, June 12
2 p.m.
May
-$66.0
$177.7
Retail Sales
Wednesday, June 13
8:30 a.m.
May
0.5%
-0.2%
Retail Sales (ex-auto)
Wednesday, June 13
8:30 a.m.
May
0.5%
0.0%
Export Price Index
Wednesday, June 13
8:30 a.m.
May
0.2%
0.3%
Import Price Index
Wednesday, June 13
8:30 a.m.
May
0.4%
1.3%
Business Inventories
Wednesday, June 13
10 a.m.
April
0.3%
-0.1%
PPI
Thursday, June 14
8:30 a.m.
May
0.5%
0.7%
PPI (ex-food & energy)
Thursday, June 14
8:30 a.m.
May
0.2%
0.0%
CPI
Friday, June 15
8:30 a.m.
May
0.5%
0.4%
CPI (ex-food & energy)
Friday, June 15
8:30 a.m.
May
0.2%
0.2%
Empire State Index
Friday, June 15
8:30 a.m.
June
10.0
8.0
Current Account (billion)
Friday, June 15
8:30 a.m.
Q1
-$200.0
-$195.8
Industrial Production
Friday, June 15
9:15 a.m.
May
0.2%
0.7%
Capacity Utilization
Friday, June 15
9:15 a.m.
May
81.5%
81.6%
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary)
Friday, June 15
10 a.m.
June
88.3
88.3

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