ONE MAN might have had sex with both Worlds End murder victims, a trial heard today.

Tests showed a matching DNA profile for semen found in both teenagers, said forensic scientist Martin Fairley.

But the tests carried out in mid-1995 could only narrow the DNA profile down to 1 in 2400 of the male population, he told the High Court in Edinburgh.

The trial has been hearing how medical samples and items found on the bodies of Christine Eadie and Helen Scott had been tested and re-tested since their bodies were dumped in East Lothian almost 30 years ago.

Scientific witnesses have described how techniques for extracting and profiling DNA have become more and more sophisticated since first used for crime-solving in the mid-1980s.

Mr Fairley, 45, based in police labs in Pitt Street, Glasgow, said he had some 17 years of expertise.

He said in 1995 he was asked to look at items connected with the Worlds End murders because, at that time, Lothian and Borders Police did not have a DNA lab of their own.

The tests then, known as STRs for Short Tandem Repeats or Quads only examined four areas of DNA compared with the ten areas examined today.

Was that the most up-to-date test in 1995? asked advocate depute Alan Mackay, prosecuting.

That was the test that was used everywhere in the United Kingdom at that time, said Mr Fairley.

He described how Christines blood could not give a DNA profile because it had been kept too long. But a result was obtained from her hair.

DNA was also extracted from a vaginal swab which had a different profile. The DNA profile is found in approximately one in 2400 of the male population, said Mr Fairley.

The scientist described how similar tests had been carried out on semen found in Helen Scott.

This DNA profile matches the sample taken from Christine Eadies vaginal swab, Mr Fairley told the trial.

Stains on the coat which was found thrown across Helen Scotts partially clothed body were also examined and again the DNA matched, the court heard.

Detective Constable Andrew Ritchie, 45, told the trial that on November 25 2004 he had detained Angus Sinclair and taken a mouth swab. On March 31 the following year, Sinclair was formally arrested and charged with the Worlds End murders.

Sinclair, 62, is now sitting in the dock at the High Court in Edinburgh where he denies raping and murdering the 17-year-old girls.

He claims that any sexual contact with the girls was with their consent and that his brother-in-law, Gordon Hamilton, was the killer.

The trial heard that in May 1997 further tests were carried out on the swabs taken from Christine and Helen and the results sent to the forensic science laboratory at Wetherby, Yorkshire to be added to the national data-base of unsolved crimes.

Mr Fairley also said that between June and August of 2004 he has involved in testing mouth swabs taken from members of the Hamilton family. By that time Gordon Hamilton who was 22 at the time of the murders in October 1977 had died.

It is alleged that Sinclair and Hamilton persuaded or forced the girls into a motor vehicle as they left a girls night out in the Worlds End pub in Edinburghs Royal Mile.

Christine Eadie was then, allegedly, driven to Gosford Bay, Aberlady, and there or elsewhere she was attacked, stripped and gagged with her pants. Her naked body was found the following day.

Later that same Sunday, Helen Scott was found in a field beside a B-road near Haddington.

Both girls had their hands tied and had ligatures round their necks.

The trial continues.

BEIJING: Chinas growth is strong, its currency is rising and a huge stash of foreign reserves insulates the economy from the sort of external payments crisis that rocked Asia a decade ago.

But that is not keeping economists from playing “what if?”

What if Chinas export engine suddenly seized up? What if the resulting overcapacity exposed a new crop of bad bank loans? What if share and property prices plunged, sapping confidence and triggering capital flight that rattled banks and hit the yuan?

Unlikely, yes. Impossible, no.

Stephen Jennings, head of the Russian investment bank Renaissance Capital, said in Moscow that Chinas double-digit growth and soaring equities could drop so hard that it would make the 1998 emerging markets crisis look like a storm in a teacup.

“The 8.5 earthquake on the Richter scale that will affect all of us - to me its China,” Jennings said in a recent interview.

China has long defied the sceptics, but economists agree that the longer imbalances and liquidity build up because of the yuans semi-fixed exchange rate, the greater the risks.

Nouriel Roubini, head of Roubini Global Economics and a New York University economics professor, pointed to a hard landing in the United States as a trigger for a possible China crisis.

The ensuing slowdown in Chinas growth could lead to a surge in bad loans, while a slump in share and real estate prices could wipe out enough wealth to dent residential construction.

“The risks are that these things at some point - not in the very short term - get out of hand and then become a serious macro and financial problem to manage,” Roubini said.

China has spent as much as $500 billion since 1998 beefing up its banks, and its public finances are strong enough to rescue them again.

“Of course fiscal resources could be used to help the banks,” Roubini said during a recent visit to Beijing.

“But at that point the risk is you get a credit crunch that has negative effects on the financial system and on the real economy regardless of the ability of the government to bail out the banks.”

Eswar Prasad, a professor at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York, argued that an “explosive crisis” was unlikely but said he was concerned that Chinas “dysfunctional” financial system might not be robust enough to withstand a big shock.

Prasad, a former International Monetary Fund researcher, identified a sudden reversal of capital inflows - caused perhaps by a loss of confidence in the banking system or social instability generated by rising inequality - as a vulnerability.

Monetary policy is a countrys first line of defense in the event of an economic shock. But Chinas dollar-linked exchange rate robs it of an independent monetary policy, Prasad said.

So if, say, Chinese households withdrew 10 percent of their bank deposits - about $200 billion - at a time of contracting economic demand, the resulting instability in financial markets could feed on itself unchecked.

“Its a potential risk. One wouldnt want to overstate the case,” Prasad said. “But, in terms of thinking of scenarios, its illustrative of the fact that even a small change in peoples preference for holding banking deposits could, because of the fragilities of the system, become something much larger.”

Amy Auster, head of international economics at ANZ Bank, said China was right to worry about capital flight, even though money is pouring in right now in anticipation of a stronger yuan.

“Should these expectations reverse - as they did when Australia floated its currency in the 1980s - the outflows of funds could prove too big for the banking system to bear.”

The policy priority then is to make the banking system as watertight as it needs to be for capital to flow freely in and out of China, Auster said in a recent report.

“The longer this process takes, the greater the risk of vast leakages in the capital account that force greater volatility into interest rates and asset prices, and eventually an abrupt currency adjustment. This, in our view, is the greatest medium-term risk to growth in China,” she said.

There is no shortage of other culprits that could derail Chinas economy, or at least force a radical retooling of its resource-intensive growth model.

One Beijing economist worries about the impact of a big spill of dangerous chemicals; others fear growing water shortages.

Yet not everyone is wallowing in doom and gloom.

Qing Wang and Denise Yam at Morgan Stanley name protectionism as the biggest threat, but they see only a small chance of a major policy-induced slowdown in the next few years.

Fertiliser company «markets.theage.com.au» has taken a 13 per cent stake in explosives producer «markets.theage.com.au».

Incitec said it purchased the shares in Dyno Nobel at an average price of $2.35 in transactions between August 24 and 29.

‘’Incitec Pivot will be seeking to further explore opportunities in discussions with the board and management of Dyno Nobel,'’ Incitec said.

‘’It is not known what the outcomes of those discussions may be, Incitec Pivot will update the market as matters may develop.'’

An Incitec spokesman said the company had nothing further to add at this stage.

Dyno Nobel shares soared in early trading today, and were 31 cents, or 15.12 per cent, at $2.36 at 11.26am, on a volume of104.9 million.
Incitec shares were $3.18 or 4.61 per cent lower at $65.87.

Incitec is familiar with the links between fertiliser and explosives.

It was once controlled by explosives producer and Dyno Nobel rival, Orica Ltd, which had a 70 per cent stake in Incitec. Orica sold its Incitec stake in May 2006.

Incitec’s core business is making nitrogen-based fertilisers, which involves the same chemistry as the manufacture of explosives.

Shaw Stockbroking analyst Brent Mitchell said Incitec may not necessarily be looking to take over Dyno Nobel and could be looking for joint ventures.

‘’I believe Incitec wants to diversify and that (explosives) seems the most logical area,'’ Mr Mitchell said.

‘’Incitec are just too linked to the rural cycle, even though they have benefited from an increase in global fertiliser prices.'’

Mr Mitchell said Incitec may not want to make a takeover offer for Dyno Nobel because it may not be interested in Dyno’s United States operations.

‘’I think the Australian part of the business attracts them, but I don’t think necessarily they want to take on a global business.'’

But, said Mr Mitchell, if Incitec were to mount a takeover bid for Dyno, it may have to pay $2.70 to $2.80 per Dyno share.

At the close of trading yesterday, Dyno Nobel had a market value of $1.67 billion. Incitec Pivot had a market capitalisation of $3.48 billion.

AAP