Economy rivals Iraq as U.S. political issue
September 9th, 2007WASHINGTON: For the first time in four years, economic concerns are rivaling the war in Iraq as a top issue on the political agenda.
Sensing new political momentum, Democrats in Congress and on the presidential campaign trail are stepping up their criticism of President George W. Bushs handling of the economy and offering their own proposals.
And now that the malaise in housing and credit markets appears to be infecting the wider economy, the Federal Reserve could feel more political pressure from Democrats and Republicans alike than it has since Alan Greenspan, then the Fed chairman, incurred the wrath of the first President George Bush for not cutting rates faster in the early 1990s.
The Fed is all but certain to reduce interest rates at its next policy meeting on Sept. 18, but the big debate among economists is how much further and faster it cuts rates after that.
The Bush administration, on the defensive, rushed out with a message of calm reassurance, as a phalanx of top officials insisted that the economy remains poised for growth despite a government report that seemed to show that the broader economy is suffering from the mortgage meltdown.
“Were still confident that were going to see high growth for next year,” said Edward Lazear, chairman of Bushs Council of Economic Advisers. And Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez warned that the prospect of tax increases would merely heighten economic uncertainty.
On Friday, a top House Democrat announced his intention to push for a sweeping revision of Bushs tax cuts that would favor middle-income families at the expense of the rich. “It will be the mother of all tax reforms,” vowed Representative Charles Rangel, Democrat of New York, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee.
Other Democrats are criticizing Bushs economic policies and pushing for more help for low-income people who face foreclosures after buying their houses with subprime mortgages, as well as for an expansion of government-financed health care and more money for education.
But perhaps the most important participant in the drama - the Federal Reserve - remained silent and will probably continue to say nothing until its next policy meeting in eight days.
Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, has signaled his readiness to reduce a key interest rate, the overnight rate for loans between banks, if the turmoil in the mortgage markets threatens to derail economic growth. But Fed officials still have lingering worries about the risk of rising inflation, and they do not want the central bank to be seen as rescuing investors and lenders from bad bets on mortgage-backed securities.
Typically, the Fed raises interest rates to ward off inflation when the economy is growing fast and in danger of overheating, and lowers rates when the economy is slackening.
Fed officials and politicians alike know that decisions about monetary policy right now are likely to affect the broader economy about the time of the presidential elections in November 2008, because changes in interest rates usually take effect after a lag of 12 to 18 months.
But the political repercussions could be greater than in many years. For the last decade, the Fed has given politicians little to criticize: It has either spurred faster growth with low interest rates or raised rates modestly amid fast growth and low unemployment.
Now the central bank is in a less comfortable position. Even as Wall Street analysts ratchet up worries about a recession, Fed officials are far from convinced that a true downturn is likely. At the same time, many officials still have worries about higher inflation.
Republican and Democratic presidential candidates all jumped on the weak job numbers issued Friday to make political points.
“It does not surprise me that theres been some adjustment there,” said Fred Thompson, who officially declared his candidacy for the Republican nomination last week. “Unemployment is at a level that used to be considered full employment in this country. Nothing is sustainable forever. Things ebb and flow.”
Democratic candidates used the first monthly decline in employment in four years to attack Bush. Senator Barack Obama of Illinois said Bushs economic policies demonstrated his “failure to lead.” Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York said the jobs data proved the administrations strategy was “not working for working Americans.” John Edwards, the former senator from North Carolina, said Bushs support for globalization had “accelerated the winnings of the winners.”
But for Bernanke, who has to make the most immediate decisions, the new employment numbers are unlikely to have settled the issue. Fed officials were almost certainly taken aback by the drop in jobs last month. Forecasters had predicted an increase of about 100,000 jobs, though many had trimmed back their forecasts in recent days.

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