NEW partnerships between landowners and managed investment scheme (MIS) operators could drive investment in long-term hardwood planta- tions.
That was a key message of consultant Craig Taylor to a Melbourne forestry conference, Plantation Eucalypts for High-Value Timber.
Mr Taylor, whose clients include Macquarie Bank, said under government changes to MIS in July, investors would be able to trade their interests after four years, thus creating a secondary market.
“This will create a whole lot of opportunities to restructure MIS for long-rotation investments,” he said. Most MIS projects now are 10 to 12-year hardwood plantations for woodchips.
For example, Mr Taylor said an agreement could be made for the investor to sell their interest to an industrial processor, the government, or a timberland investment management organisations (TIMO) such as Hancock Victorian Plantations.
“The advantages will be in matching the cash flow timing to the needs of different types of investors,” he said.
An MIS could establish a plantation and a TIMO could buy the interest on the secondary market closer to the time of harvest, he said.
Mr Taylor said MIS companies preferred to lease land rather than buy it, but were forced to buy because there was little suitable leased land available. Buying land had pushed up land values in the locations targeted by developers.
More creative strategies could include putting plantations on only parts of a farmer’s land, such as wide shelter belts.
“The other issues are scale. Plantations must have scale and not have a high fixed-cost component,” he said.
Mr Taylor presented to the conference a simple model based on a 25-year hardwood rotation that showed a nominal return on investment of 9.27 per cent. Returns would increase if income was earned after retirement, as revenue would be taxed at 15 per cent, he said.
The model included a range of assumptions, such as planning and establishment costs ($1500 per hectare), land rental ($120 per hectare), and stumpage rates of $22 a cubic metre for pulpwood to $157 a cubic metre for large sawlogs.
Land rentals at double this rate, $240 per hectare, would lower returns to 8.04 per cent, he said.
Mr Taylor said many factors stopped landowners establishing their own long-term plantations. These ranged from the high up-front costs, the lack of scale, and a reluctance to give up productive land and regarding trees as a 25-year crop.
However, the Federal Government could provide low-interest loans and free technical support as it did with long-rotation softwoods in the 1960s and 1970s, and even pay for environmental services.
“But I don’t see landowners dedicating large good parts of their land to grow trees,” he said. “Trees will remain a relatively insignificant part of their land, and will not be a base for the timber industry in the region.”
Mr Taylor said TIMOs were unlikely to invest in high-value plantations, preferring to gain immediate regular cash flows.
Partnerships with MIS companies were more likely, and governments were also unlikely to invest in commercial-scale hardwood plantations, he said.
Mr Taylor said apart from secondary markets, other factors gave MIS companies the incentive to invest in long-term rotations. Plantation managers’ knowledge of site selection, genetics and silviculture had increased, giving promoters more confidence in their products. Many people also wanted more investment diversity.
However, Mr Taylor said there were risks involved with longer rotations, such as fire, drought, insect attack, frost and floods. KEY POINTS PMatching cash flow timing to the needs of different investors could drive investment.
PJuly MIS changes mean investors can trade interests, creating a secondary market.
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