Brown puts party on election footing

December 7th, 2007

GORDON Brown has put the Labour Party on an election footing, fuelling suggestions he could call a snap poll later this year, as new opinion polls show he has stretched his lead over the Tories during his ‘honeymoon period’ as party leader.

The Prime Minister has ordered all Labour constituency parties to select their would-be MPs in time for the party conference in only six weeks, in a clear sign that he wants to be in a position to call an election to take advantage of his remarkable surge in popularity since taking over from Tony Blair less than two months ago.

Despite enduring his third national crisis since moving into No 10 Downing Street, Brown has managed to pull ahead of the Tories and establish a 10-point lead over party leader David Cameron, according to a new survey out today.

The YouGov survey put Labour up two percentage points at 42% while David Cameron’s Conservatives fell one to 32%. It is the biggest gap registered in the poll since November 2002.

And the good news continued for Brown as he also registered another healthy lead in an ICM poll. It put Labour on 39% to the Conservatives’ 33%.

Significantly, however, Brown’s personal ratings offer the greatest cause for confidence among the New Labour hierarchy. Brown has handled a succession of tough tests, including the failed car bombings in London and Glasgow, record flooding in the Midlands and now the foot and mouth outbreak.

YouGov found 65% of voters believed Brown was doing well - with just 17% saying he was doing badly, while 36% expressed pleasant surprise at how he had performed so far.

But a majority (55%) believed Cameron was performing poorly, with 29% saying he was doing well - an almost complete reversal of his score in April.

Cameron had been expected to take advantage of Brown’s ‘dour’ image and extend the lead he had established during the final months of Blair’s regime.

But the Tories have found Brown a more formidable opponent, while Cameron has also been troubled by internal disputes over his policy on grammar schools and poor by-election results.

The Tories will this week attempt to regain the political agenda by unveiling new proposals aimed at streamlining government and cutting costs. It was reported last night that their plans will include ditching a slew of working time, health and safety, anti-money laundering and care home regulation laws. It is suggested that the cuts could save as much as 14bn of taxpayers’ cash.

One of Brown’s first moves on coming to power was to hand control over election planning to his ally Douglas Alexander, even though Labour does not have to go to the country again until 2010.

The Prime Minister, a veteran electoral strategist, is believed to favour an early election to establish himself as the people’s choice as leader, with a personal mandate earned at a General Election. However, despite expectations that he would aim for an election next spring, the sustained bounce in his poll ratings raises the serious possibility of an earlier move.

“All the constituencies have been told to have their election candidates selected by the start of conference time,” one member of the party’s National Executive Committee confirmed last night. “You could see that as Gordon wanting to establish himself as an efficient leader, and getting the party to do what he wants.

“But it is still very unusual. It could be a case of getting our ducks in a row for an early election or, at the very least, giving him the option of going to the country whenever he wants.”

Brown allies, who had previously suggested that an autumn election was a distinct possibility, remained coy about the latest development last night. One claimed the edict to local parties suited the new leader’s preferences by leaving all options open, but insisted that - polls permitting - next spring remained the most likely date.

Brown’s former spin doctor Charlie Whelan urged caution, insisting that the Prime Minister “will not risk an early election unless he is sure he can win it”.

Whelan said the Brown inner circle would not take a leap in the dark, and pointed out that Ed Miliband, the man who will write Labour’s manifesto, has specifically warned that “it is important that we don’t get carried away with the polls”.

“Even more important is learning the lessons of the past,” Whelan added. “Just as the government has learned from the last foot and mouth outbreak, so Brown has learned just how volatile a modern electorate can be.”

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Elderly spared price hikes for city care costs

December 7th, 2007

PENSIONERS and disabled people were today set to be saved from the prospect of paying more for care services. Councillors were expected to ditch the most controversial part of plans drawn up to deal with the local authority’s cash crisis. List of voluntary groups in firing line

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Two community centres that have been earmarked for closure were also expected to be offered a temporary reprieve.

The council will still have to turn to NHS Lothian to ask it to bail out its care budget in order to balance its books. Tighter controls are also to be ordered on school transport and foster care budgets, while nearly 30 voluntary organisations face having grants they were promised cut.

The moves were expected to be voted through by councillors today following a meeting of the ruling SNP-Lib Dem coalition yesterday.

Councillor Paul Edie, the city’s health and social care leader, said “huge efforts” had been made to avoid compulsory redundancies and cutbacks to key services.

“We have worked very hard to protect frontline services and ensure the elderly and people with learning disabilities are not hit by massive service charge increases,” he said. “There’s still a long way to go, but we have made significant progress.”

The council hopes to persuade NHS Lothian that helping fund community care is the only way to avoid growing “bed-blocking” problems in hospitals.

An 800,000 fund of one-off savings made across the council this year - which had previously been unallocated - will also be used to fund care services.

That will put more pressure to make savings on other council departments.

But Tory councillor Kate MacKenzie warned: “If [the administration] decides not to go ahead with some of the cuts, [councillors] are going to have to make equally tough decisions in some other areas.”

Across the council, recent budget predictions showed there would be a 25 million overspend in 2007-8 without any cost- cutting. The health and social care department was charged with saving 2.67m, while the children and families division was tasked with reducing costs by 5.33m.

The financial crisis is partly due to the collapse of plans to close 22 schools and four community centres, which would have saved 9m over three years.

A further report is set to be ordered into the future of the Riddles Court and St Ann’s community centres which faced being closed to save 1.6m.

Joyce Connon, Scottish secretary of the Workers’ Education Association (WEA), based at Riddles Court, said: “Our main point is that Edinburgh city centre needs a focal point for adult learning and they can’t close Riddles Court without a replacement being in place.”

Education leader Councillor Marilyne MacLaren reiterated the council’s desire to avoid hitting frontline services.

She said: “With the community centres, we need more detail than we have got from officials.

“I don’t want to do any of these cuts, but we have to balance the budget so that it is sustainable. Unfortunately, there is nothing which is painless.”

One of the measures set to be approved is saving 3m by delaying planned capital projects in schools and community centres.

Cllr MacLaren said no decision had been made on what this would entail. “We will have to look at the capital budget,” she said.

Councillor Andrew Burns, the city’s Labour education spokesman, said it was unreasonable to ask councillors to vote on the move without spelling out the implications. He added: “There is a whole swathe of cuts right across the children and families, and health and social care departments, which we think are not acceptable.” Threat to future of community food scheme

A COMMUNITY scheme to provide affordable fresh food to low-income families is facing closure due to the council’s financial crisis.

The Edinburgh Community Food Initiative (ECFI) is one of nearly 30 voluntary organisations threatened with a cut in funding.

Council officials have drawn up plans to save 120,000 this year by reducing some of the local authority’s grants.

The worst affected would be ECFI, which expected to receive 40,000 this year.

The charity runs a number of initiatives, including 13 community food co-ops in low-income areas, such as Craigmillar, Broomhouse and Wester Hailes. Around 2000 families use this service every week, and another 4000 people make use of the group’s other healthy food projects. Organisers today said they “may no longer be able to operate” if the proposals go ahead.

Councillor Marilyne MacLaren, education leader, admitted she felt “unhappy” with the plans. The Lib Dem-SNP ruling coalition was today set to postpone a decision on the cutbacks. HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE

Care services

Plans to increase maximum hourly rate from 9 to 12 for receiving home help set to be scrapped.

A review of 764 individual care packages, meaning people who can afford to pay for shopping, cleaning or laundry services at home would no longer receive the services for free, to be ruled out.

The idea of charging pensioners and disabled people to use day care centre services to be dismissed.

A review of “care at home” packages, which the council purchases through agencies, to assess if clients still need their existing levels of care.

Around 18 staff will be offered redeployment or voluntary redundancy due to a efficiency drive to save 64,000.

The council’s in-house team of home helpers will not be subject to a review, ruling out the possibility of mass redundancies.

New funding sources

“Borrowing” of 200,000 from an unused community safety grant from the Scottish Government.

The use of around 100,000 saved by the council as a result of the May election. Politicians were not paid for holding executive positions while extended negotiations were carried out to set up the current SNP-Lib Dem coalition.

The possibility of a 500,000 dividend from the council-owned firm EDI.

Asking NHS Lothian to plug the remaining “black hole” - likely to run into hundreds of thousands of pounds. CHILDREN AND FAMILIES

Community Centres

A decision on the closure of Riddles Court and St Ann’s is set to be delayed while a report is produced on the possibility of alternative accommodation for users and the physical state of the buildings.

A review of community learning and development, which could lead to a reduction in community centre posts, and a reduction in management and development costs, but without affecting frontline services.

Other projects

A review of buses and taxis that are provided for children who live more than two miles from their nearest school, attend a Catholic school, or are disabled.

Ways of reducing costs in fostering will be investigated. The council wants to have more in-house carers, and not be forced to rely on the independent sector.

Save 3m by delaying planned capital projects, such as building new schools. No details have been released on what such a measure would entail.

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Treasurys Hit Hard by Payroll Growth

December 7th, 2007

(12-07) 11:43 PST NEW YORK, (AP) —

Treasury prices sold off sharply Friday, driving the 10-year yield well above 4 percent after the latest monthly employment report showed an acceptable jobs growth pace for a challenged economy.

The sense that the labor market is holding up lowered demand for Treasurys, a secure asset that generally performs well when investors are concerned about economic softness. Stocks fluctuated between losses and gains after the news.

The Labor Department said 94,000 jobs were added to the nation’s payrolls in November and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.7 percent. October payroll growth was revised upward by 4,000 to 170,000.

Wages in November rose by 0.5 percent, but many economists expected a gain of just 0.3 percent. The Federal Reserve is known to carefully monitor wage inflation in its policy decisions. If wages continue to rise at the pace seen last month the Fed will be under more pressure to keep rates higher.

The Thomson/IFR Median estimate was for jobs growth of 100,000. Creation of 100,000 jobs per month was viewed by many economists as the lowest acceptable growth rate Д prior to the severe problems seen in the housing and credit markets in the second half of this year.

“This report is not good, but it is close to what was expected and in this environment, people will take it,” said Joe Balestrino, fixed-income market strategist at Federated Investors Inc. “This is better than the report being well below expectations.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note dropped 1 28/32 to 101 1/32, with a yield of 4.12 percent, up from 4.02 percent late Thursday. Prices and yields move in opposite directions.

The 30-year long bond lost 1 23/16 to 106 27/32, with a yield of 4.57 percent, up from 4.50 late Thursday.

The 2-year note fell 5/32 to 100 1/32, with a yield of 3.10 percent, up from 3.04 percent.

The fact that jobs creation was not more boisterous also will give the Fed the maneuvering room it needs if it wishes to cut interest rates at its Tuesday monetary policy meeting, he said.

The Fed this fall reduced the federal funds target by 0.75 percentage point to 4.50 percent. Pricing in the Fed funds futures market showed that investors overall expect the Fed to lower rate another 0.25 percentage point on Tuesday, given that credit markets are behaving warily ahead of the year-end and the housing market shows no sign of improvement. Some investors are betting on a 0.50 percentage point cut.

Another report also backed the view that the economy has multiple challenges, but is not in collapse.

The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment for this month dropped to 74.5 from 76.1 in November. Thomson/IFR had forecast a 76.0. The latest result reflected consumer concerns about higher gas prices and weakness in the credit market.