Trends & Innovations - Wednesday

December 15th, 2007

Meth not hard to find, teens say

One in 4 teens said it would be “very easy” to get methamphetamine, a study by The Meth Project found. Also, about 25% of teens said there are benefits to use meth. The survey found 24% of teens agreed that meth “makes you feel euphoric or very happy,” while 22% said meth “helps you lose weight” and “helps you deal with boredom.” Meanwhile, 76% of surveyed teens still expressed strong disapproval with trying meth. The study questioned some 2,600 students ages 12-17.

Cybercrimes overtake drug trade

The world of online crime is now a $105 bil business, making it larger than illegal drug trafficking, according to cyberdefense company McAfee. It said part of the problem is that many people, companies and officials don’t take the risk seriously. McAfee added that the punishment for those that are caught often doesn’t match the severity of the crime. To fight this, companies are protecting the data rather than just blanketing the whole network. That should help, as 70% of data breaches are done from insiders.

Lefties have been gaining ground on their right-handed peers in terms of population size during the past few decades, according to a British study. It says that since the early 1900s, lefties have grown from 3% to 11% of the total population. The researcher said it’s noteworthy because there may be a cause for why a variable trait like handedness is changing.

Airports across the country are getting upgrades in order to handle flyers who want to recharge their portable devices between flights. The electrical charging stations, which are often kiosks, are covered with advertising. Some airports have even installed credit-card-ready pay stations where fliers can buy an hour’s worth of charging for $4.50.

One language dies every 14 days. Most of these come from northern Australia, where 153 Aboriginal languages are at a risk. Other hot spots include Oklahoma, Texas and New Mexico, where 40 languages are spoken by Native Americans. Only five elderly members of the Yuchi tribe, for example, were fluent in their language as of 2005.

BONUS CHECK? NOPE

December 15th, 2007

December 15, 2007 — Merrill Lynch CEO John Thain offered his firm’s battered bond division the clearest sign yet that the credit-market woes will continue to inflict pain both on the bank and many of its employees.

At a time when Goldman Sachs is preparing to distribute nearly $17 billion in bonus money to its employees, Merrill, which has lost billions already, is likely to slash bonuses by 40 percent to 70 percent. CNBC first reported the bonus cuts yesterday.

The reductions come as Merrill expects to book another $5 billion to $6 billion in collateralized debt obligation write-downs, and offer Thain the political cover he needs to overhaul the bank’s compensation structure.

Out will be packages based on department profit-loss statements. In will be stock- and options-heavy packages tied to the firm’s overall profitability, said a recruiter familiar with the firm.

A Merrill spokeswoman declined comment.

A former Merrill executive said Thain’s overhauls, “are pretty much certain to be home runs for anyone sticking around for three-to- five years. The stock is floating around a five-year low and the markets are broken. When they are fixed, the stock can double.”

One factor in Merrill’s favor is that bond traders unhappy with their bonus pay have never had fewer job options, as rivals big and small have shut departments and are reeling under multi-billion dollar losses.

According to Merrill bond division managers and executive-recruiters, the most pain will be concentrated in the firm’s structured products division, the group responsible for creating and distributing the now infamous CDOs.

Their likely bonus cuts - called pay-downs in Wall Street parlance - may range from 70 percent to, as one mortgage trader put it, “the goose egg.”

A widespread headcount reduction in this group is considered virtually certain.

Another department such as corporate bond-trading is considered a lock to see both sharp pay-downs and layoffs as well.

But other departments, such as interest-rate trading, which includes global government bonds, and agency-backed mortgage securities, had banner years.

Merrill insiders told The Post that Thain is said to be very cognizant of Merrill’s disastrous response to the Long-Term Capital debt crisis in 1998.

Merrill fired hundreds of traders and sales staff only to lose out on making hundreds of millions of dollars when the market returned.

roddy.boyd@nypost.com

CITI RESCUE IS A WINNER

December 15th, 2007

December 15, 2007 — Citigroup’s new head Vikram Pandit is winning plaudits for helping crack a nearly hopeless logjam clogging world credit flows - while also giving Citi a needed facelift.

Analysts took turns praising the 50-year-old chief as he spent his third day on the job sweating over his next risky move following his bold rescue of more than $49 billion of Citigroup assets.

Goldman Sachs gave Citi a boost yesterday by recommending that investors start buying Citi debt, saying the bank is more insulated from losses on its mortgage paper.

Shares bounced up and down all day before stabilizing at $30.70, off 31 cents.

Analysts say his moves on Thursday to shift $49 billion of failed mortgage paper onto Citi’s ledger helped restore confidence that Citigroup will be responsible for its Structured Investment Vehicles (SIVs), setting an example for more banks to follow.

Thanks to Citi’s efforts to shrink SIV debt, “the SIV problem is very close to resolution,” said Peter Crane, publisher of Money Fund Intelligence.

SIVs - first invented by Citi in 1988 - were designed as off-the-ledger shells to funnel mortgage paper in and out of investors’ plays.

But when junk mortgages began defaulting en masse, investors in high-yielding mortgage paper panicked and stopped buying it, trapping hundred of billions in paper in transit going in and going out of SIVs.

Some analysts think Pandit’s most logical next step in rebuilding Citi’s stature is to cut the bank’s treasured dividend to preserve its badly strained balance sheet.

Citi expects to pay nearly $10.8 billion this year in dividends to investors, who might dump their shares if the $2.16-per-share annual dividend is cut.

Goldman said it believes Pandit is more likely to cut the dividend than to start shedding assets.