The year of puncturing Wall Street orthodoxy
December 21st, 2007NEVER in the history of Wall Street have so many who are so senior fallen so fast.
And its no wonder. Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and UBS have all lost billions of dollars as the crisis that began in the subprime mortgage market has ripped through the financial markets. There is enough finger-pointing at most major banks to cause carpal tunnel syndrome.
This year the leaders of some of the worlds most respected financial institutions Д leaders who are paid first and foremost to manage risk Д have been caught either unaware or uninformed about giant risks their companies took. Their financial engineers concocted securities so complex that even the brainiacs cannot figure out what those investments are worth. And the few banks that got it right, like Goldman Sachs, now face a sobering question: Will they be so agile next time?
The landscape on Wall Street is already changing drastically. Firms once known for their savvy risk managers, like Bear Stearns, or for their conservative stockbrokers, like Merrill Lynch, have been crippled by the credit squeeze. Meantime, other firms that have run into trouble in the past, such as Credit Suisse, have emerged relatively unscathed and are now angling for clients and market share.
The credit bubble that is now bursting, like the dot-com implosion before it, was fueled by the fantasy of easy money. Everyone knew the music would stop, but as Charles Prince, the former Citigroup chief executive, famously said, until it stopped, the bank would keep dancing. Any smart trader knows that challenging the conventional wisdom is often a sure bet. Here are 10 bits of well-worn Wall Street defenses that many must wish they had questioned this year.
High Pay Means Low Risks
Wall Street chief executives are paid princely sums to manage risks. But not only did these executives pile into tricky, hard-to-value assets, they also seemed incapable of keeping track of their falling value. And those ranks are packed with the best and brightest.
As one chief executive after another was shown the door, it began to feel like a Wall Street version of “And Then There Were None.” The scramble to replace top executives at Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and UBS laid bare the dearth of talent on the Street. Many rising stars have left big Wall Street banks to join hedge funds and private equity firms. Power-hungry chiefs failed to set up solid succession plans.
Morgan Stanley had at least one good reason to leave John J. Mack in place after it reported its first loss ever this week. If the board had sacked him, it would have to hunt for a new leader, and the pickings are getting slimmer.
Spreading Risk Is Good
This makes sense. If big banks load up on risky assets, they cannot make as many loans, which is bad for the economy (witness what is happening today).
But the banks no longer hold the loans they make. Instead, they package them into securities and spread the risk just about everywhere. No one knows who is exposed to subprime home loans, for example. Losses from such investments have turned up in towns in the Arctic Circle, public schools in Florida and big banks in Germany, among other places. What is more, the banks spread the risk but ended up with it anyway, which is why Wall Street has taken more than $40 billion in losses on mortgage-related investments.
Your Board Will Protect You
Unless you are E. Stanley ONeal and you rack up $5 billion, I mean $8 billion, I mean $12 billion, in losses. At Merrill, ONeal announced huge write-downs Д and then kept revising them higher. No one has figured out why the Street did not take bigger hits last February, when the floor fell out of the subprime mortgage market. Virginia Reynolds Parker, head of Parker Global Strategies, called it the year of slow confessions. That may be too kind.
Computer Models Will Save Us
Unless they dont. Despite being packed with Ph.D.s from around the globe, the Street forgot that algorithm-filled computers could not predict everything. So-called Black Swan events happen more than you think. And in 2007, such completely unexpected events occurred in February, August and November.
Buyouts Will Backfire
Not yet, anyway. For much of 2007, everyone fretted that reckless loans used to finance buyouts would break Wall Street. Instead, the real danger turned out to be complex structured finance investments linked to mortgages.

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