Markets expected to stay volatile
February 10th, 2008TOKYO: Currency and stock markets are likely to remain skittish this week after a meeting of the Group of Seven industrialized nations offered no quick fix for the turbulence in credit markets.
The Group of 7s message Saturday on currencies was much the same as has been at previous meetings and was expected to have little effect on markets. The communiquй encouraged China to allow the yuan to appreciate more quickly.
The finance leaders from the worlds top industrialized nations also urged banks to fully disclose losses and shore up balance sheets to help restore the normal functioning of markets.
Analysts said such words by themselves were unlikely to dispel worries over financial institutions losses from the turmoil in credit markets, which flared up last year as defaults rose on U.S. subprime mortgages.
The Group of 7s “joint statement contained nothing eye-catching and there were no surprises,” said Tsuyoshi Segawa, an equity strategist for Shinko Securities. “It will probably be hard for equity markets to show an immediate positive reaction.”
Since investors did not have very high expectations for the meeting to begin with, a sharp, negative reaction in equities or currency markets is not expected .
But risk appetite was likely to remain subdued, and as a result the yen could rise towards three-year highs against the dollar in the weeks ahead, analysts said.
“The risks of further rises in the yen are high,” said Masafumi Yamamoto, head of foreign exchange strategy for Japan at the Royal Bank of Scotland.
The yen is showing a tendency to take its cue from equity markets, and is seen as a barometer of investors appetite for risky carry trades that consist of selling low-yielding currencies like the yen to invest in higher-yielding currencies and assets.
Falls in equities tend to temper demand for such carry trades and lend support to the yen.
Yamamoto said the yen could rise to 104 to the dollar by the end of March, which would be its highest level since March 2005.
The dollar stood at 107.35 at the end of last week, having recovered from 104.95 in January, which was the dollars lowest level in nearly three years.
Equity markets had a dismal time last week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 4.4 percent, its worst week in about five years. The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares fell 3.7 percent and the Nikkei average lost 3.6 percent.
Financial markets in mainland China and Taiwan will be closed Monday for the Lunar New Year holidays while the Hong Kong stock exchange will be open. Markets in Japan will also be closed for a national holiday.
The Group of 7 said the crumbling U.S. housing market had affected the global economy and that conditions could worsen as debt-laden banks clamp down on credit.
Mario Draghi, Bank of Italy governor and a European Central Bank governing council member, said Saturday that the next 10 days to two weeks would be crucial as more banks detail their exposure to bad debts.
Banks have already taken more than $100 billion in write-downs. Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck of Germany said Saturday that write-offs could reach $400 billion.
Further write-downs by banks and possible capital injections may be announced alongside European bank results this month.
“The focus will be on individual steps such as any plans to bolster capital to resolve concerns about the financial system,” said Toru Tanaka, senior manager for treasury and foreign exchange at Mitsubishi.
“Currency markets are likely to move this way and that depending on such individual pieces of news,” Tanaka said.
Investors remain uneasy about the outlook for U.S. bond insurers, referred to as monolines, after Moodys Investors Services cut its “AAA” ratings for bond insurer XL Capital Assurance, a unit of Security Capital Assurance, on Thursday.
Investors are waiting to see whether Moodys and Standard Poors will downgrade the two largest bond insurers, MBIA Insurance and Ambac Assurance.
Any such downgrades would affect the securities they insure and could cause deeper financial losses, unsettling the financial system anew and hitting fragile stocks.
Other factors that investors will focus on in the coming week include data on U.S. retail sales set for release Wednesday and the testimony of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board chairman, Ben Bernanke, before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday.
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.50 percent at a two-day meeting that ends Friday.

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