DEARBORN, Michigan: The head of the United Automobile Workers union said on Thursday that he expected 15,000 to 20,000 workers to leave General Motors during a new round of buyouts, and that GM would replace nearly all of them with lower-paid employees.

The UAW president, Ron Gettelfinger, said the number of workers who take buyouts would certainly be lower than in 2006, when 34,410 people, about one-third of GMs unionized work force, accepted deals. If 15,000 left in this buyout round, that would be about 20 percent of the 74,000 UAW-represented workers who remain at GM

About 21,500 GM workers have been with the company for at least 30 years. Those workers can elect to take a lump-sum payment of $45,000 or $62,500, depending on their job description, and retire with full benefits. Early-retirement packages also are available, as are cash buyouts of as much as $140,000, for anyone are willing to forgo health care and other benefits.

“Im sure there will be a lot of interest” in the offers, Gettelfinger said. But he noted that a weakened economy and falling home prices could make workers more hesitant to give up their paychecks than during GMs original buyout program, even though some of the payment offers are larger this time.

“Some people have planned on retiring and leaving the state,” he said. “Would you do that right now, knowing what the housing market is? Youve got all these factors that werent there a year and half ago.”

Gettelfinger also said some current workers could be dissuaded by former colleagues who have come to regret their decision to leave. “The people that leave, sometimes they look back on it and think Its tougher out here than I thought it would be, ” he told reporters after accepting an award as the 2007 newsmaker of the year from the Detroit-based Crains family of business publications.

While the 2006 buyout program was aimed purely at shrinking GMs work force, this round of offers is primarily focused on opening up jobs so that the company can begin hiring workers at a lower pay scale, which it is allowed to do under the four-year contract signed with the UAW last fall.

GM, which said this week that it lost $38.7 billion last year, can hire a maximum of about 16,000 workers into so-called noncore jobs, at wages of $14 to $16 an hour, compared with the $28 an hour that assemblers make now.

Including benefits and retiree health care costs, each worker who leaves under the buyout program and is replaced by someone on the lower pay scale would save GM about $48 an hour, or nearly $100,000 a year.

Shelly Lombard, an analyst with Gimme Credit, estimates that the two-tier wage system will save GM at least $1 billion a year. If the company does not replace some workers and is able to reduce the number of workers that it must continue to pay, under the contract, after eliminating their jobs, the savings could be even higher, she said.

“Its recently negotiated union contract sets the stage for General Motors to do very well once the savings kick in and auto sales recover,” Lombard wrote in a note to clients Thursday. “But with the U.S. auto market swooning and the savings still in the future, the next several quarters are going to be painful.”

A GM spokesman, Dan Flores, declined to comment on how many workers are expected to accept a buyout package or how many of those it would replace. Most workers who take one of the offers will leave by July 1, he said.

“We have committed to jointly working with the UAW to implement all elements of the national contract,” Flores said. “We will work in conjunction with the UAW to determine the backfilling requirements as a result of the attrition plan.”

Meanwhile, workers at the Ford Motor Company have until Tuesday to decide whether they want to take a buyout offer from that automaker. The acceptance rate at Ford is likely to be higher than at GM, because Ford is offering workers more money (a lump sum of $70,000 for those already eligible to retire) and because the companys finances, which are weaker than GMs, have left many Ford workers less confident about job security.

Chrysler also is offering more buyouts to its workers, but is doing so by region and individual plants rather than companywide.

Superheroes like Iron Man and Spider Man came through in the clutch for Marvel Entertainment («www.businessweek.com») in the company’s latest quarter.

The New York-based company said on Nov. 5 that its third-quarter profit almost tripled to $36.3 million, or 45 cents a share, from $13.2 million, or 16 cents a share, a year ago, mostly due to strong revenue from licensing the worldwide rights to its popular comic-book characters to toy makers and other merchandisers.

Net revenue climbed 34% to $123.6 million from $92.2 million in the prior-year period.

Analysts had expected earnings of 28 cents a share, excluding special items, on revenue of $90.52 million. Wall Street is projecting full-year earnings of $1.44 a share.

While the results were strong, after backing out one-time gains from previous audit settlements, which came to 11 cents a share, and the positive impact of a lower tax rate and a smaller number of outstanding shares, they were pretty much in line with expectations, said Arvind Bhatia, an equities analyst at Sterne Agee & Leach. (Sterne, Agee & Leach, has managed or co-managed a public offering or provided other investment banking services for Marvel within the past 12 months and also makes a market in the company’s securities.)

Marvel shares traded 16.2% higher Nov. 5 to close at $27.08.

The stock jumped not because of the third-quarter results but on the company’s profit projection for next year, which was higher than most people were expecting, said Joseph Hovorka, an equities analyst at Raymond James & Co. («www.businessweek.com»), who has a strong buy rating on the stock.

Marvel raised its profit estimate for 2007 to between $1.60 and $1.65 a share from a prior range of $1.30 to $1.55 a share and boosted its revenue forecast for this year to between $455 million and $475 million from $375 million to $435 million. For 2008, it expects to earn $130 to $1.50 a share on $360 million to $400 million in revenue, which doesn’t include sales or costs related to the release of the Iron Man and The Incredible Hulk films next spring.

Net sales in Marvel’s licensing segment more than doubled to $66 million from $28.3 million in the third quarter of 2006, mostly due to continuing effects of a its lucrative Spider-Man merchandising joint venture with Sony Corp. («www.businessweek.com»). Revenue contributed by the joint venture soared to $24.2 million from $800,000 a year ago.

In its publishing segment, net sales rose 13% to $4.0 million, buoyed by ongoing strength in direct and mass market venues and special event publishing such as Stephen King’s Dark Tower series. Toy revenues slipped 31% to $22.7 million from $33.0 million a year ago, primarily due to the transition from toys produced by Marvel in 2006 to toys mostly licensed to and produced by Hasbro ((«www.businessweek.com») this year.

There had been some concerns about whether Marvel’s toys deal with Hasbro would generate sales that met expectations, given that Marvel now has to wait until toy sales exceed certain levels before it earns royalties, said Bhatia at Sterne Agee, who has a hold rating on the stock. But the toy segment has done well, he added.

The publishing results were better than most people expected because of the bundling together of different editions of comic books and marketing efforts aimed at expanding sales through such mass market venues as Wal-Mart («www.businessweek.com») and Target («www.businessweek.com»), in addition to specialty venues such as Barnes & Noble, Bhatia said.

Marvel has an opportunity to substantially improve profits with films based on the Iron Man and Incredible Hulk characters, slated for spring 2008 releases. But there are risks, too, since these are the company’s first forays into film production.

The films should do very well because of “the popularity of the characters they’re doing and the fact that they have 40 years of brand awareness,” said Hovorka at Raymond James. “It’s not as if they’re creating new intellectual property that you’re marketing and people have to be told what it is.”

The release dates May 2 for Iron Man and June 13 for The Incredible Hulk will also be key to the films’ success, he believes.

“May 2 is considered the starting weekend for the summer season and is probably one of more coveted release dates in the industry,” he said. Films released during that month have, in the past, had some of the best box office takes, he added.

Hovorka expects the films to boost Marvel’s profits in 2008 by 30 cents a share. Cowen and Company («www.businessweek.com») in a Nov. 5 research note, estimated the films would generate roughly $10 million in operating income in fiscal 2008.

During the third quarter, Marvel spent nearly $162 million to buy back about 5.3 million shares of its common stock at an average price of $23.81. It still has $38.1 million remaining under the $200 million share repurchase program authorized in May.

(02-15) 07:58 PST Wayne, N.J. (AP) —

Toys “R” Us will soon have stricter safety standards for the products it sells in its more than 1,500 stores.

Starting March 1, the Wayne-based toy retailer is setting a much tighter standard for the amount of lead allowed in toys made just for the chain.

It’s also barring two chemicals that have raised safety concerns in products for infants and young children.

By the end of the year, there also won’t be nickel-cadmium batteries in Toys “R” Us products Д a move meant to help the environment.

The company says the changes should meet or exceed new federal standards expected from Congress.