Weather Chills China’s Economy
February 21st, 2008Jeffrey Schwartz, the CEO of McDonald’s’ («www.businessweek.com») China operation, boarded a plane on the morning of Jan. 28 in Shanghai for what should have been a routine flight to Beijing. But with some of the worst winter weather in memory hammering the country’s transportation network, there are no routine flights in China these days. Schwartz didn’t arrive in the Chinese capital till that night. “That hour-and-45-minute journey took me 12 hours,” he says. “It was the snow.”
Millions of people throughout China are suffering far greater hardships. One of the worst snowstorms to hit China since the government began keeping records in 1950 has wreaked havoc throughout the country. At least two dozen people have died in accidents and 827,000 people have been displaced. Heavy snowfall has caused gridlock at train stations and airports, just two weeks before the Chinese New Year begins and hundreds of millions of Chinese return home for the holidays.
The weather is already taking its toll on the Chinese economy. So far the snowstorms have cost $3 billion in damages, according to the Civil Affairs Ministry. The heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain have created transportation bottlenecks for travelers as well as for shipments of coal, vital to fueling China’s power plants. Over the weekend a power outage forced authorities to cancel trains from Beijing to the southern metropolis of Guangzhou, stranding 600,000 passengers at the Guangzhou train station. Guangdong province has halted train ticket sales from Jan. 27 to Feb. 6, and bad weather has forced 19 airports across China to shut down. On Jan. 28, the Shanghai stock exchange plunged 7.2%, hitting a five-month low, on worries about the economic impact of the freeze. Shares did not recover much Jan. 29, rising less than 1%. Jarring Slowdown Feared
The concern among economists is the weather’s impact on China’s inflation problem. Even before the storms of January the consumer price index was rising at a troublesome rate, with prices in December jumping 6.5%. Much of that was from rising food prices, due in part to a «www.businessweek.com» (BusinessWeek.com, 8/17/07). Now, “because of the transport disruption and the damage to farmland, food prices may go up even more rapidly,” says Paul Cavey, an economist with «investing.businessweek.com» in Hong Kong. The Agriculture Ministry’s basket of wholesale food prices “has shot up quite remarkably” this month, he adds; it rose 11%.
Soaring prices and electricity shortages are bound to have an impact on China’s export machine. Roughly half of China’s provinces have reported brownouts because power plants could not get enough coal. “A lot of factories will close because households will be given priority for using electricity,” says Mingchun Sun, an economist in Hong Kong with Lehman Brothers («www.businessweek.com»). “That will hurt production and exports.” Sun predicts export growth—which has been running at 22% over the past four months—to slide to as low as 10% in January. And since factories will close for a week during Chinese New Year next month, export growth in February will be disappointing, too. (There was no Chinese New Year slowdown last February; a change in tax laws that took effect after the holiday encouraged companies to go into overdrive in the weeks beforehand.)
While Sun says the chances of a rebound in the spring are good, he worries that rising inflation and falling export numbers could jolt an economy that already has been slowing. On Jan. 24 the government announced that economic growth for the fourth quarter of 2007 was 11.2%, still torrid but down from 11.9% six months earlier.

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