Treasury’s Paulson on the economy
March 8th, 2008Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson came to the Bay Area Thursday and Friday amid a slew of bad news on the housing and economy fronts, including a report that 63,000 jobs disappeared nationwide in February.
Paulson is the Bush administration’s top economic policy official and has taken the lead on the government’s program encouraging lenders to offer relief to subprime borrowers.
On Friday, he sat down with The Chronicle before an appearance at Stanford University to talk about the risks facing the economy. The interview has been edited for space and clarity.
Q: The credit crunch seems to be getting worse. Are we falling into a vicious circle in which falling home prices are choking off lending, causing prices to fall further?
A: The risks are clearly to the downside here. We are very focused with what’s going on with financial market turmoil. When the turmoil began in August, I said it would take a while to work through the excesses because they had been building up for some time in the housing markets and the credit markets. We are making progress. There are going to be bumps along the road. There are going to be unpleasant surprises from time to time along the way.
I’ve watched capital markets over my careers and I’ve seen sentiment swing extremely from time to time. In July, financial institutions were aggressively looking for risk. They were too comfortable with it perhaps. Now sentiment has swung back hard to risk adversity. But the institutions are adapting. They are raising capital. I have great confidence in our markets.
My big focus here is to aggressively encourage any big financial institution that may need capital or think they many need capital to go out and raise it because it’s available today.
Because if they don’t have enough capital, then they shrink their balance sheet and they restrain lending, which is vital to keeping our economy healthy and growing
Q: Many Americans are dismayed by how far the dollar has fallen. Should we be worried?
A: As Treasury secretary, I’ve always been very clear that a strong dollar is very much in our nation’s interest. We have a strong dollar policy. Our economy, like any other, has its ups and downs. It’s structurally sound.
The long-term fundamentals are healthy. The risks are to the downside right now, but the long-term fundamentals are healthy. And I have confidence that the long-term fundamentals will be reflected in our currency markets.
Q: Do you think the administration’s initiatives are sufficient to deal with the housing crisis or do you think there’s some merit in Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s position that lenders should be encouraged to recognize principal losses?
A: I don’t believe Chairman Bernanke and I have a different position. We both believe that our policies should reach out to homeowners that want to stay in their home and are able to afford to do so and to reach out to them through the industry to make modifications, do refinancings, is a very good program. We know foreclosures are expensive and they hurt homeowners and communities and the economy.
Clearly, writing down principal on a loan is one of the tools that financial institutions have. They can address the problem by writing down principal on the loan, they can address the problem by reducing interest rates. They can do it through other forms of modification of the loans when they make sense. That’s the program we are supporting very aggressively. We have this industry alliance to get out to all homeowners that may have a problem, but particularly those who have subprime adjustable-rate mortgages.
Q: What about people who are underwater?
A: There’s been a lot of discussion about homeowners who have zero or negative equity. The way I’ve looked at that is, if you are a homeowner and you can afford to make your mortgage payment, you should be honoring that mortgage payment. If you say, “I don’t want to honor that payment, and I’m going to leave unless someone else takes my losses,” I don’t think the government should be taking those losses any more than the government should be bailing out any investor who has a loss. In many instances, people who are walking away are speculators who put little or no money down.
Q: What do you say to the growing number of our readers who tell us they can’t make ends meet? To what extent do our public officials bear responsibility for the situation?
A: First of all I want to say that I empathize with your readers. There are many people working hard and struggling to make ends meet. There’s no doubt that high energy prices today are a headwind. That food prices are an issue. That we have the housing correction. That our economy is slowing down. That’s why a huge part of my focus and the president’s focus is to do things that will make a difference.
Growth in this country was almost 5 percent in the third quarter. But when we saw the economy slowing down, we moved very, very quickly to work with Congress on the economic stimulus package. I’m going to be working very diligently with the Internal Revenue Service to get those payments out to your readers beginning May 2.
When we’ve had excesses like we’ve seen in a number of markets and unsustainable home price increases, a correction is unfortunately inevitable and it’s necessary.
E-mail Sam Zuckerman at szuckerman@sfchronicle.com.

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