Fed increasingly risking its reputation
March 18th, 2008WASHINGTON: Far more than at any time before, the Federal Reserve is putting its vast resources and its reputation on the line to rescue Wall Streets biggest institutions from their far-reaching mistakes.
Over the next few months, the central bank will lend hundreds of billions of dollars to banks and investment firms that financed a mountain of mortgages now headed toward default.
No one knows how many financial institutions will be looking for money, or how much they will seek. No one knows how much in hard-to-value securities the central bank, in return, will have to hold as collateral.
And no one knows how much the Fed could lose if the borrowers fail to repay their loans or whether hundreds of billions of dollars will ultimately have to come from taxpayers to shield the nations financial system from ruin.
In recent weeks, the central bank announced a series of emergency short-term loan programs that totaled about $400 billion. But on Sunday, Fed officials raised the stakes by offering investment banks a new loan program without any explicit size limit.
These moves, along with a $30 billion credit line to help JPMorgan Chase take over the failing Bear Stearns, is fraught with more than financial risk.
The biggest danger is damage to the Federal Reserves credibility if it is seen as unwilling to let financial institutions face the consequences of their decisions. Central banks have long been acutely sensitive to “moral hazard,” the danger that rescuing investors from their mistakes will simply encourage others to be more reckless in the future.
Fed officials for years have cringed at the mention of a “Greenspan put,” an allusion to the belief of some investors that Alan Greenspan, the former Fed chairman, would use the Feds powers to protect them against a plunge in financial markets and provide them with a metaphorical “put” Д an option to unwind their positions at an acceptable price.
But the moves undertaken by the current chairman, Ben Bernanke, amount to a much bigger insurance policy than anything Greenspan provided.
Bernanke had made clear for months that he wanted to avoid a bailout of Wall Street. But as an economic scholar who spent years studying the Depression of the 1930s, he had also drawn the lesson that panics in financial markets can transform a modest downturn into a cataclysm.
Fed policy makers now contend that the consequences of not coming to the rescue would have been a cascade of bankruptcies and defaults on Wall Street that could have undermined the financial system and risked severe damage to the economy.
Few analysts were ready on Monday to question the Feds uncomfortable effort in balancing risks. But it could be months or years before the full consequences become apparent.
Alan Blinder, a professor of economics at Princeton and a former Fed vice chairman, commented: “These kinds of crisis-prevention measures always have to balance potential moral hazard costs down the line against the clear and present danger that something is going to happen right now.
“Youre taking on substantial risks when you do something virtually unprecedented or you put money at risk. The Fed has now done both.”
Another big risk is that the central bank, in providing a cushion of emergency loans, could jeopardize its reputation as an inflation fighter. On Tuesday, Fed officials are all but certain to sharply reduce their benchmark interest rate on short-term loans, the federal funds rate Д for the sixth time in six months. The Fed has already reduced the rate in rapid stages to 3 percent from 5.25 percent, and many analysts predicted Monday that it might lower it by a full percentage point more.
Complicating the task, inflation pressures are unmistakable, even though the economy is widely thought to already be in a recession, and a downturn usually leads to slower increases in consumer prices.
On Monday, the dollar continued to decline in value against the euro and the yen, a trend that tends to push up import prices. And in commodities trading in New York, the price of gold for April delivery was quoted as high as $1,006.90 an ounce before falling back to settle at $1,002.60. Those increases stem at least in part from growing concerns among global investors about inflation in the United States and the weakening dollar.
Fed officials acknowledge that inflation has picked up slightly, but they assert that the much bigger risk is a recession caused by the squeeze in the financial markets.

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