In Seattle, sales at a long-established hardware store, Pacific Supply, are suddenly dipping. In Oklahoma City, couples planning their weddings are demonstrating uncustomary thrift, forgoing Dungeness crab and special linens. And in many cities, the registers at department stores like Nordstrom on the higher end and J. C. Penney in the middle are ringing less often.

With Wall Street caught in a credit crisis that has captured headlines, the forces assailing the economy are now spreading beyond areas hit hardest by the boom-turned-bust in real estate like California, Florida and Nevada. Now, the downturn is seeping into new parts of the country, to communities that seemed insulated only months ago.

The broadening of the slowdown, the plunge in home prices and near-paralysis in the financial system are fueling worries that what most economists now see as an inevitable recession could end up being especially painful.

Indeed, some economists fear it will last longer and inflict more bite on workers and businesses than the last two recessions, which gripped the economy in 2001 and for eight months straddling 1990 and 1991. This time, these experts say, a recession in which economic activity falls over a sustained period and joblessness rises across the board could even persist into next year.

“Its not hard to construct very dark scenarios, primarily because the financial system is in disarray, and its not clear how to get it all back together again,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moodys Economy.com.

To be sure, there are many places where talk of recession still seems as out of place as a diner trying to score a table at a trendy Los Angeles restaurant without reservations on a Saturday night. First-class cabins of airplanes are jammed. So are spas, cigar bars and childrens clothing boutiques selling upscale dresses.

Unemployment, meanwhile, still remains at a relatively low 4.8 percent.

But even after the Federal Reserves extraordinary efforts to prevent the collapse of Bear Stearns from spreading to other financial institutions, the danger still lurks that banks will grow even tighter with their funds and will starve the economy of capital.

“If lenders and debtors dont trust each other, that causes a power outage,” said Michael Darda, chief economist at MKM Partners. “And thats where we are now.”

Until recently, Darda was among those still holding to the notion that the economy could generate enough jobs to keep the economy rolling. But the private sector has shed jobs for three consecutive months. Darda is now worried.

“Well be lucky to make it out of this without something that looks like a recession,” he said.

On Thursday, FedEx , whose global courier business tends to rise and fall with swings in the economy, reported that its earnings actually dropped in the United States and warned that in future months it expected to fall well short of its customary double-digit annualized profit gains.

“We just arent going to be able to do that,” Alan Graf, FedExs chief financial officer, said in a call with Wall Street analysts. “The crystal ball for everybody is very cloudy here.”

For now, there are still pockets of prosperity across the country. Farmers are enjoying record crop prices as the adoption of ethanol makes corn a way to fill gas tanks, and as rising incomes in China, India and elsewhere spell growing demand for meat. The weak dollar is helping exporters and retailers that cater to foreign tourists.

Eastern Mountain Sports, the outdoor clothing dealer, says sales increased by one-third this month compared with the year before at its store in Manhattan. “A lot of that is Europeans coming over,” said Will Manzer, the companys president.

With oil selling at approximately $100 a barrel, the Taste of Texas Steakhouse in Houston Д a popular spot for events held by BP, Shell and Exxon Mobil Д is reveling in days of plenty.

Even those areas suffering the downturn can bank on considerable help on the way, economists say, as the impact of lowered interest rates kicks in later this year, encouraging businesses to expand and hire. Tax rebate checks to be mailed out by the government this spring may lubricate spending as well.

Despite fears that the odds for a particularly severe recession have now increased, Zandi still subscribes to the consensus that the economy will shrink only modestly during the first half of 2008, then resume expanding as more money washes through the system. That would limit the damage to the type of relatively modest recession that hit the economy earlier this decade.

August 8, 2007 — Fidelity Investments’ Ellyn McColgan, president of distribution and operations, resigned a day after Rodger Lawson started as the No. 2 executive at the world’s biggest mutual-fund manager.

Lawson, whose first day as president of sales and retirement services was Aug. 6, will assume day-to-day control over distribution until McColgan’s replacement is found, Boston-based Fidelity said.

McColgan is the latest of a number of top executives to leave this year. Jeffrey Carney departed as president of retirement services last week, operations chief Robert Reynolds announced his retirement in April, and Stephen Jonas stepped down as head of investments last January.

TOKYO: Mizuho Financial Group may postpone for the second time a takeover that would create Japans third-biggest securities firm, after losses related to the U.S. mortgage crisis put off a deal scheduled for last November.

Mizuho, Japans third-largest bank by market value, may delay a merger of investment-banking unit Mizuho Securities with brokerage affiliate Shinko Securities, the units said Friday in a statement filed with the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Shinkos takeover of the banks securities arm, giving Mizuho control of the combined company, was to take place by May 7.

Subprime-related losses prompted Mizuho in November to delay the acquisition, saying it needed to revise terms that valued Shinko at 765 billion, or $7.7 billion. Mizuhos securities arm reported 227 billion in losses related to U.S. home loans for the nine months ended Dec. 31 and forecasted a further 50 billion of such charges.

“Mizuho needs to cast aside uncertainty as soon as possible,” said Keisuke Moriyama, a banking analyst at Nomura Holdings. “What well watch is how Mizuho executives take responsibility for this second postponement and how the group can proceed with restructuring its securitization business.”

Shinko fell as 2.9 percent in early afternoon Tokyo trading, cutting its market value to 246 billion. The firm has lost 34 percent of its value since the start of the year.

Mizuho rose 1.6 percent as the benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed for a third trading day.

Combining the two units would create Japans third-largest brokerage, with 97 offices nationwide, more than 6,000 employees and combined revenue of 600 billion.