Oil and gold prices continue to plummet
March 22nd, 2008The prices of oil, gold and other commodities continued to plummet around the world on Thursday, a retreat from a months-long price run-up that may offer consumers a reprieve from inflation.
In less than 36 hours, crude oil and gold have fallen almost 10 percent from their Tuesday highs. Gold, which recently crossed the $1,000 mark, slid to nearly $900 a troy ounce in overnight trading. Futures contracts for crude oil were trading below $100 for the first time in more than two weeks.
Wheat, sugar, corn, copper, and platinum all fell as well. “These are all significant declines,” said James Steel, a commodities analyst at HSBC.
On Wall Street, stocks opened higher, with the Dow Jones industrial average up more than 100 points. The gains followed a dreary night overseas, with benchmark indexes in Hong Kong and Sydney tumbling more than 3 percent, though Tokyos Nikkei index showed a strong gain.
By late afternoon in Europe, markets in Frankfurt, London, and Paris were all down more than 0.6 percent.
The precipitous drop in commodity prices began Wednesday morning, hours after the Federal Reserve lowered benchmark interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point.
Many investors had expected the Fed to cut by a full percentage point, which would have sent down the value of the dollar. For months, with the dollar in free fall, investors have plowed their funds into commodities, which are likely to go up as the dollar falls.
But the Feds less aggressive move sent the dollar up, and it has since extended its gains against the euro and the yen. The European currency fell more than 1 percent on Thursday to $1.5429.
As a result, investors scrambled to get out of their bets on commodities. “The precious metals markets and all commodity markets had built in a higher cut,” Steel said.
In late-morning trading on Thursday, oil was hovering just above $100 a barrel, a high price by historical standards but down sharply since the beginning of the week. Retail gasoline prices in the United States, which had been setting records earlier in the month, have been dropping since Sunday, falling to a nationwide average for unleaded regular of about $3.28 a gallon. Diesel, however, is still rising and set a new record overnight of $4.03 a gallon.
The June contract for gold was trading around $925 a troy ounce in New York trading on Thursday morning, down more than 8 percent from its $1,008.80 closing price on Tuesday, as demand for the precious metal appeared to drop in some regions. “We had a battery of data showing a real erosion in jewelry demand in India and China,” said James Steel, a commodities analyst at HSBC.
Indeed, though some analysts said the flight from commodities suggests a less risky outlook Д raw materials can be used as a safe haven in difficult economic times Д others said the price declines indicate worries about demand.
Some investors say they are worried that the credit crisis is going to take a severe toll on the United States economy, hurting the markets confidence that producers will escape the worst effects of a slowdown.
Ben Dell, an oil analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein Company, said he was concerned that global demand for crude oil will fall this year. “If gross domestic product comes in weak,” he said, “theres a lot of room for a correction.”
But Paul Horsnell, a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, played down the notion that sudden fears of a recession in the United States or anywhere else had triggered the recent slide in commodities prices. “If you get the kind of market turbulence you have had this week, you have knock-on effects in commodities,” he said.
Horsnell said that some estimates indicate that the world will use more crude oil than it did last year. That is sure to fortify arguments that the commodities boom, as much as before, is being driven by greater demand from China, India and other emerging economies.
Oil prices, he noted, are still at levels evoking the oil shocks of the 1970s. “We see headlines, Oil collapses to $102, ” he said. “Is that really a collapse?”
Carter Dougherty and Tim Johnston contributed reporting.

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