HONG KONG: As the Hong Kong dollar has slumped to record lows because of its peg to the U.S. dollar and as savings rates have been slashed to zero, Arleta Chen has been shifting money into a Chinese-currency bank account.
For Hong Kong residents like Chen, a semi-retired management consultant, the allure of a yuan bank account is not the interest rate, which is low at less than 1 percent.
Instead, they are looking for currency appreciation as Chinas central bank allows the yuan to rise against the U.S. dollar, and hence the Hong Kong dollar, to help combat inflation.
A Reuters poll forecast that the yuan would rise 11 percent against the U.S. dollar this year, an increase that could help offset the impact of inflation in Hong Kong, which has doubled in the past few months to 6.3 percent, a 10-year high.
“The yuan is appreciating, so rather than put money in Hong Kong dollar accounts, which are yielding negligible interest, Im putting it in a currency that would help me hedge against inflation,” said Chen, who is 52.
She is not alone. Deposits in Chinese-currency accounts at Hong Kong banks have soared more than 40 percent this year, totaling 47.8 billion yuan, or about $6.8 billion, by the end of February, as Hong Kong residents have sought to preserve their wealth.
The yuans availability in Hong Kong reflects growing integration with Chinas booming economy and Hong Kongs role as a testing ground for loosened controls on the currency.
Yuan bank accounts were introduced in Hong Kong in 2004, and some shops accept payment in yuan. Chinese financial institutions can also issue yuan bonds in Hong Kong.
The Hong Kong dollars record lows and falling interest rates are a consequence of the territorys currency peg to the U.S. dollar, which requires Hong Kong to track loose U.S. monetary policy.
The dollar has hit record lows against the euro and the Swiss franc and a broad basket of major currencies, dragging the Hong Kong dollar down with it because of the peg. Imports, especially for food from China, have become more expensive as the currency has fallen, adding to inflation.
But analysts say price pressures are not severe enough in Hong Kong to provoke a change in the two-decade old currency peg that would allow the currency to rise. Government officials also say the peg will stand unchanged.
“In theory, Hong Kong could widen the trading band but that would severely undermine the credibility of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and wouldnt make much sense,” said Kevin Lai, senior economist at the Daiwa Institute of Research. “It would put increased pressure on the Hong Kong dollar.”
The Hong Kong dollar is pegged at 7.8 to the U.S. dollar but can trade at 7.75 to 7.85. The U.S. dollar traded at 7.7930 on Thursday.
“In a historical context, inflation in Hong Kong is not very high,” said Mirza Baig, strategist at Deutsche Bank. “It does not justify a policy shift.”
Nor is there any guarantee that a stronger currency would have the desired effect: the Singapore dollar, for instance, has been rising, but inflation in Singapore has still jumped to a 26-year high.
Equally, Joseph Yam, chief executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the central bank, said this month that the exchange rate was not to blame for Hong Kong inflation, but rather the rising cost of labor.
A 10 percent decline in the U.S. dollar adds only 0.8 percent to Hong Kong prices in the short term and 1.6 percent in the medium term, Yam said.
Economists say strong economic growth averaging more than 7 percent for the past four years is helping push up labor costs and thereby inflation.
Yet inflation may slow as economic growth is set to ease this year to 4.6 percent as Hong Kong feels the effects of weaker global demand, according to a Reuters poll.
Banks in Hong Kong hope that providing yuan services will improve profits. They even encourage residents to open accounts at China branches that offer higher interest rates. But there are restrictions that limit how much money can be exchanged for yuan.
Chen, who also opened a yuan account at a bank in China, where she often travels on business, would like to put 90 percent of her savings in yuan. Daily limits on withdrawals from yuan accounts in Hong Kong and China, however, mean that most of her savings remain in Hong Kong dollars.
“The peg provides stability,” she said. “But right now we are getting the short end of the stick in terms of the Hong Kong dollars value.”