China firms try IPOs despite volatile market
April 23rd, 2008HONG KONG: The rebound in the Hong Kong share market has renewed hopes among capital-hungry Chinese companies seeking to list in Hong Kong, but investors are wary after the poor trading performance of this years market newcomers.
That skepticism means that two China retailers, E-Land Fashion China Holdings and Maoye International, face challenges as they begin marketing deals this week that would be Hong Kongs first initial public offerings since March.
“If the stocks debut or postmarket performance trades below the offering price, why should I buy during the IPO? I can buy after it lists,” said Adam Tam, fund manager at Pacific Sun Investment Management in Hong Kong.
Six companies have listed in Hong Kong this year but only one, China Railway Construction, trades above its offering price.
Even shares in once-hot consumption investments, which provide exposure to surging domestic demand in China, have cooled. The snack maker Want Want China, for example, trades 3.7 percent below the offering price in its $1 billion IPO last month.
That kind of performance has meant eight Hong Kong IPOs worth a combined $7 billion have been withdrawn or postponed since the start of the year, according to Thomson Reuters data.
The Hang Seng index lost 18 percent in the first quarter of the year but has gained 9 percent in April.
“Though IPO valuations are attractive now, they are not must-buy, as upcoming listing candidates are not market leaders,” said Tam, who attended Maoyes scaled-back investor presentation on Monday.
Maoye, the department store operator, is raising as much as $420 million, less than half its earlier target, in a deal handled by Goldman Sachs, HSBC and UBS.
Maoyes IPO price range represents a price/earnings multiple of 19.7 to 25.8 times the IPO sponsors earnings forecast for 2008, compared with its P/E valuation of 29 to 37.7 when it originally began a $905 million offering in January.
By comparison, Chinas top department store, Parkson Retail Group, trades at 34.8 times 2008 prospective earnings, while Golden Eagle Retail Group trades at 27 times.
“Chinese consumption stocks are not defensive plays anymore, as some of them face price cap policies imposed by the Chinese government - they are also facing policy risk,” said Michael Chung, fund manager at Iventure Investment Management.
Beijing caps the retail prices of some goods in order to curb inflation, meaning retailers cannot pass higher costs onto customers, which squeezes margins.
Chung said he was choosing consumption-related stocks based on fundamentals instead of buying the entire sector. He also said demand for new issues would be crimped by investor reluctance to lock up funds for IPO applications if there were only prospects for low returns on their IPO shares.
Numerous Hong Kong investors have been burned after borrowing heavily to apply for shares in hot IPOs.
Last year, the Hong Kong exchange was third busiest for IPOs, after London and Shanghai.
“Investors buying IPOs closely track market sentiment,” said Antonny Cheng, managing director at Gain Asset Management.
“Last year, everyone flocked into IPOs no matter whether the company quality was weak. Now, there is no such sentiment.”
Institutional investors, meanwhile, have grown risk-averse as they manage the global credit crunch, he added.
Chinas department store sales are expected to total 682 billion yuan, or $98 billion, in 2010, an increase of 72.5 percent from 2005, or a compound annual growth rate of about 11.5 percent, Euromonitor says.
Several Chinese retail operators hope that kind of growth is enough to entice investors.
The womens apparel retailer E-Land, a unit of the South Korean E-Land World Group, plans to kick off its $369 million Hong Kong IPO roadshow on Wednesday, according to a document obtained by Reuters that details the terms of the deal. Its deal is being handled by Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and UBS.
Artini International Group, which sells fashion accessories, began premarketing for its $100 million to $200 million Hong Kong IPO on Monday and plans to start its formal roadshow on April 28. The company is scheduled to start trading on May 16.

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