Home prices fell by record across U.S.

April 29th, 2008

WASHINGTON: Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell in February by the most on record, pointing to an imbalance between supply and demand that shows no sign of ending.

The SP/Case-Shiller home-price index dropped 12.7 percent from a year earlier, more than forecast and the most since the figures were first published in 2001. The gauge has fallen every month since January 2007.

Prices will probably keep sliding as foreclosures push even more properties onto the market just as stricter lending rules limit the number of qualified buyers. Shrinking home values have contributed to a slowdown in consumer spending that may already have tipped the economy into a recession.

“This is just one more strain for consumers, in addition to high energy prices and tight credit,” said Michelle Meyer, an economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings, which forecast a price decline of 12.4 percent. “Prices are going to continue to fall, probably through the end of next year.”

Prices dropped 2.6 percent in February from a month earlier, after a 2.4 percent decline in January, the report showed. The figures are not adjusted for seasonal effects, so economists prefer to focus on year-over-year changes instead of month-to-month.

The index was forecast to drop 12 percent following a 10.7 percent drop in January, according to the median estimate of 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from declines of 12.6 percent to 11 percent.

The groups 10-city composite index, with a history back to 1987, fell 13.6 percent in the 12 months ended in February, also the most ever.

Nineteen of the 20 cities in the index showed a year-over- year decrease in prices for February, led by a 23 percent slump in Las Vegas and a 22 percent decline in Miami. Charlotte, North Carolina, was the only area showing a gain with a 1.5 percent increase.

Compared with January, homes in all 20 areas covered dropped in value.

“Were going to continue in this abyss for a while,” said Ellen Zentner, an economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in New York. “Inventories are getting worked off but its a slow process. Sales and prices will go down.”

Prices remained under pressure in March, reports last week showed. The median price of existing homes sold last month fell 7.7 percent from March 2007, the National Association of Realtors said. The median value of new houses fell 13.3 percent, the most since July 1970, according to the Commerce Department.

The declines have yet to stir buyers. The total number of houses sold in March dropped to a 5.456 million annual pace, the fewest since comparable records began in 1999.

Lenders are trying to devise ways to reduce foreclosures. Bank of America, seeking approval of its Countrywide Financial takeover, on Monday said it will modify at least $40 billion in troubled mortgage loans over the next two years to help keep customers in their homes. The move would help as many as 265,000 homeowners, company executives said.

GMAC, the auto and home lender that General Motors sold to a private equity group, reported Tuesday that it lost $589 million in the first quarter as more borrowers fell behind on mortgage payments.

Robert Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets and a professor at Yale University, and Karl Case, an economics professor at Wellesley College, created the home-price index based on research from the 1980s.

Eli Broad, a philanthropist and co-founder of KB Home, one of the largest U.S. homebuilders, on Monday said he expected home prices to drop another 20 percent.

“I dont think were anywhere near a bottom in housing,” Broad told Bloomberg TV at the Milken Institute Conference in Beverly Hills, California. “Were going to have a big inventory of unsold, unoccupied homes thats going to take three or four years to clear out.”

US consumer confidence drops in April on inflation, job worries

April 29th, 2008

NEW YORK: Soaring gas prices and weaker job prospects made Americans gloomier about the economy in April, sending a widely watched measure of consumer sentiment to a five-year low, a private research group said Tuesday.

The New York-based Conference Board said that its Consumer Confidence Index, which had plummeted in March, fell again to 62.3 in April, down from the revised 65.9 last month and 76.4 in February. The number was in line with the consensus estimate of 62 from Wall Street economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR, but the index remains at its weakest point since March 2003, when it registered 61.4, ahead of the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

“This continued weakening suggests that not only has the feeble level of growth in the first quarter spilled over into the second quarter, but the economic conditions may have slowed even further,” Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said in a statement. “And not only are lackluster business and job conditions eroding confidence, but rising gasoline prices are undoubtedly heightening concerns.”

The Present Situation Index, which measures shoppers current assessment of economic conditions, dropped to 80.7 in April from 90.6 in March. The Expectations Index, which measures the outlook over the next six months, was little changed at a depressed 50.1, compared to 49.4 in March.

Eroding consumer confidence foreshadows weakening consumer spending, which could further hurt the already deteriorating economy since consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the nations economic activity.

The downbeat news on confidence came as the widely watched Standard Poors/Case-Shiller index showed that housing prices dropped in February at the fastest rate ever, showing that the housing slump is gaining momentum.

The pair of reports were released as the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter point on Wednesday, but then hold firm for the rest of the year. The Fed is facing a difficult juggling act of trying to shore up the deteriorating economy without encouraging inflation, a growing concern among Americans.

Franco noted that consumers worries about inflation are still rising, and that measure now matches the all-time high reached in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in the fall of 2005 when gas and oil prices soared after the hurricane and other storms devastated New Orleans and shut down a large chunk of the nations oil refineries.

She added that the percentage of respondents surveyed who intended to take a vacation over the next six months has fallen to a 30-year-low, another indications that consumers are turning more frugal.

The dismal reading is another blow to retailers, which have struggled with a spending malaise that has worsened in recent months. Shoppers are being confronted with a number of economic problems as soaring gas and food bills are outpacing meager wage gains. Consumers are also faced with an escalating credit crisis and slumping housing values.

A big worry is the employment market, which has been shedding jobs in recent months. The Labor Department is expected to show another loss of 65,000 when it releases its April report Friday; that follows a 80,000 job loss in March. Analysts also estimate that the unemployment rate will remain at 5.1 percent.

Consumers current appraisal of the labor market was more negative in April. The percentage of those who said jobs are “hard to get” rose to 27.9 percent from 24.5 percent, while those claiming jobs are “plentiful” declined to 16.6 percent from 19.2 percent.

Their job outlook was mixed. Those expecting fewer jobs in the months ahead increased to 32.8 percent from 29.3 percent, while those anticipating more jobs increased to 9.0 percent from 8.0 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase declined to 15.1 percent from 16.1 percent.

Meanwhile, money from the governments economic stimulus plan have begun dropping into bank accounts Д but with rising gas and groceries bills, early indications suggest that shoppers will focus on catching up on basics like meat or eggs, instead of buying a new TV or clothes. That means that grocery stores and discounters could be the few beneficiaries in the retail world of the stimulus plan.

The Consumer Confidence report is derived from responses through April 22 of a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

US consumer confidence drops in April on inflation, job worries

April 29th, 2008

NEW YORK: Soaring gas prices and weaker job prospects made Americans gloomier about the economy in April, sending a widely watched measure of consumer sentiment to a five-year low, a private research group said Tuesday.

The New York-based Conference Board said that its Consumer Confidence Index, which had plummeted in March, fell again to 62.3 in April, down from the revised 65.9 last month and 76.4 in February. The number was in line with the consensus estimate of 62 from Wall Street economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR, but the index remains at its weakest point since March 2003, when it registered 61.4, ahead of the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

“This continued weakening suggests that not only has the feeble level of growth in the first quarter spilled over into the second quarter, but the economic conditions may have slowed even further,” Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said in a statement. “And not only are lackluster business and job conditions eroding confidence, but rising gasoline prices are undoubtedly heightening concerns.”

The Present Situation Index, which measures shoppers current assessment of economic conditions, dropped to 80.7 in April from 90.6 in March. The Expectations Index, which measures the outlook over the next six months, was little changed at a depressed 50.1, compared to 49.4 in March.

Eroding consumer confidence foreshadows weakening consumer spending, which could further hurt the already deteriorating economy since consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the nations economic activity.

The downbeat news on confidence came as the widely watched Standard Poors/Case-Shiller index showed that housing prices dropped in February at the fastest rate ever, showing that the housing slump is gaining momentum.

The pair of reports were released as the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter point on Wednesday, but then hold firm for the rest of the year. The Fed is facing a difficult juggling act of trying to shore up the deteriorating economy without encouraging inflation, a growing concern among Americans.

Franco noted that consumers worries about inflation are still rising, and that measure now matches the all-time high reached in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in the fall of 2005 when gas and oil prices soared after the hurricane and other storms devastated New Orleans and shut down a large chunk of the nations oil refineries.

She added that the percentage of respondents surveyed who intended to take a vacation over the next six months has fallen to a 30-year-low, another indications that consumers are turning more frugal.

The dismal reading is another blow to retailers, which have struggled with a spending malaise that has worsened in recent months. Shoppers are being confronted with a number of economic problems as soaring gas and food bills are outpacing meager wage gains. Consumers are also faced with an escalating credit crisis and slumping housing values.

A big worry is the employment market, which has been shedding jobs in recent months. The Labor Department is expected to show another loss of 65,000 when it releases its April report Friday; that follows a 80,000 job loss in March. Analysts also estimate that the unemployment rate will remain at 5.1 percent.

Consumers current appraisal of the labor market was more negative in April. The percentage of those who said jobs are “hard to get” rose to 27.9 percent from 24.5 percent, while those claiming jobs are “plentiful” declined to 16.6 percent from 19.2 percent.

Their job outlook was mixed. Those expecting fewer jobs in the months ahead increased to 32.8 percent from 29.3 percent, while those anticipating more jobs increased to 9.0 percent from 8.0 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase declined to 15.1 percent from 16.1 percent.

Meanwhile, money from the governments economic stimulus plan have begun dropping into bank accounts Д but with rising gas and groceries bills, early indications suggest that shoppers will focus on catching up on basics like meat or eggs, instead of buying a new TV or clothes. That means that grocery stores and discounters could be the few beneficiaries in the retail world of the stimulus plan.

The Consumer Confidence report is derived from responses through April 22 of a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.