G.M.’s electric Dream awaits reality
AS car commercials go, the ads for the Chevrolet Volt are a typical mix of children, blue jeans, cute dogs and folksy instrumental music.
But they are different in one respect: the small print on the screen reads, “Not yet available for sale.”
General Motors is staking a large chunk of its credibility on the Volt, a plug-in electric sedan that uses a gasoline engine only to recharge its batteries.
It is a concept car that cannot be built until the technology is available, and one that the company has not even officially announced it will build.
But given the state of the American automotive industry, with companies scrambling to be seen as green, the Volt is widely viewed as G.M.s car of the future, capable of competing with imports like Toyotas Prius hybrid.
The company is vigorously promoting the Volt and, in a new contract with the United Auto Workers union, has assigned a Michigan plant to produce it, starting in 2010.
What if it does not deliver? “It will be misery for them,” said John ODell, senior editor for Edmunds.coms Green Car Adviser.
“I think they will build it, because they are very much aware their reputation is on the line.”
The Volts most ardent supporters acknowledge that there is a lot at stake. G.M.s environmental image suffered when it backpedaled on plans to build hydrogen-powered cars and stepped away from an earlier battery-powered car, the EV1.
“The company has taken a risk,” said Tony Posawatz, vehicle line director for the Volt.
But even if it gives the Volt the go-ahead, G.M. may be overly ambitious with its timetable.
For the car to do what it is being designed to do Д run for up to 40 miles on an overnight charge from a wall outlet, and much farther if its batteries are recharged by its small gasoline engine Д it will need advanced lithium-ion battery technology.
And while lithium-ion cells are being used in many electronic devices, they will have to be made safer and more affordable and durable for use in cars.
“Ive become quite convinced that they have to do it,” said Walter McManus, an auto industry economist at the University of Michigan.
“The problem,” he added, “is the battery technology is still not ready. I would say, when they break ground on a plant to make batteries, two years later the Volt will come out.”
For the car to be built starting in 2010, he added, “a factory has to be built soon, and it doesnt look like the batteries are that near production.”
The Volts supporters concede that there are hurdles, but they say they will not be deterred.
“Ive been unbelievably enthusiastic about this vehicle,” said Robert Lutz, vice chairman for product development at G.M. and arguably the vehicles most vocal promoter, despite his reputation as a fan of cars big and fast.
“I would be surprised, shocked and dismayed if we decide not to do it,” he said.
But Posawatz is more pragmatic. “Until the product is done there is always some degree of uncertainty,” he said. “No such batteries exist today, but our confidence builds as days go on.”
Since June, G.M. has awarded contracts for development of lithium-ion batteries to several companies, and expects to have samples later this year. Testing is to begin by mid-2008.
Lutz said he would not know how many Volts would be built, nor what they would cost, until G.M. had a better handle on production costs.
“If we have to charge $40,000 for it, the volume would be less than if we can get it out for $29,000,” he said.
But that hasnt stopped Chevrolet from marketing the car.
Kim Kosak, general director of marketing, Chevrolet division, said the Volt was first marketed to younger people and affluent households. Print ads appeared in publications like Newsweek, The New Yorker and The Economist.
But now everyone is a potential customer, Kosak said.
Chevrolet has added Major League Baseball broadcasts to its list of advertising outlets.
At this summers Dream Cruise, the Detroit-areas parade-like tribute to American cars, an elaborate, giant Volt was on display.
Kosak acknowledged that she could not recall ever seeing such a marketing thrust for a vehicle that was not yet available. “I would be hard-pressed to tell you when we ran anything of this nature,” she said.
