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Is Alex Salmond destined to become a lame duck?

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BARRING mishaps, this Wednesday will see Alex Salmond stand before his fellow 128 MSPs, thank them for their applause and accept their nomination to become Scotland’s fourth First Minister. It will be a moment of history to rival any in the country’s recent past. When Donald Dewar first assumed the office eight years ago it is unlikely he ever thought his main rival would one day succeed him. It is also unlikely that Dewar would recognise the man who, in his acceptance speech, will issue a very un-Salmond message to the people of the country.

Hardened Nationalists hoping for Braveheart rhetoric are likely to be disappointed. Instead, Salmond will talk the language of ‘consensus’. He will refer to the Parliament’s original guiding principles - of openness and co-operation. He will appeal to his vanquished opponents to honour them. And he will pledge, in that same spirit of openness, to do likewise himself.

In truth, he has little choice. From this week on, Salmond is stepping into the unknown - hoping to rule Scotland with a group of just 47 MSPs, with the ranks of 72 opponents bearing down on him from the opposition benches. Salmond will have the same trappings of power as were enjoyed by Jack McConnell - the ministerial chauffeur, the Bute House residence, and the walnut-lined office in St Andrew’s House - but he will not have McConnell’s clout.

After the euphoria of victory, Salmond’s failure to form a coalition that commands a majority in the Holyrood Parliament is about to hit home. The effectiveness of his government will rest largely on whether or not he can cajole, persuade and convince his hated opponents to back his policies. It may be the new politics, but it is also a high-risk strategy for the SNP. The question hanging over a quiet Holyrood this weekend is a stark one: will First Minister Salmond be a history-maker, or will he end up a lame duck leader?

The shape of this new political landscape was decided last Sunday in the Grosvenor Hotel in Edinburgh’s Haymarket, just behind the headquarters of the Scottish Liberal Democrats. Lib Dem leader Nicol Stephen was on the last of three phone calls to Salmond over the possibility of a coalition deal between the pair. If the Liberals signed up with the SNP, the two could run the country in much the same way as Labour and the Liberals had done before them: railroading bills through the Parliament on the back of majority rule.

After his one-seat victory over Labour, Salmond had declared that his “preference” was to rule with the Liberals. He believed it would happen - having joked in private that Stephen and his MSPs were “Barclaycard politicians - my flexible friends”. But Stephen was holding out and demanded that Salmond must ditch his plans to hold an independence referendum before any negotiations took place. Salmond would not comply. So Stephen declared the deal was off. In so doing, he pushed the Nationalists into the only option available - to govern by minority rule.

The Nationalists quickly changed their tune on the best way to govern. As talks continued for a limited agreement with the depleted Green Party, deputy SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon and others toured the TV studios to talk up the benefits of minority government. It would help to engender a new spirit, they insisted, bringing forward a “new politics” which would revive the moribund Scottish Parliament, with parties compromising in order to work together in the interest of the nation.

The SNP now admits readily that it too will have to compromise. “The idea that you can snap your fingers and 65 votes will come along is not what we will have in the next four years,” said former party leader John Swinney, after talks with the Greens had concluded on Friday. “If issues require legislation then we require a majority and we require to build consensus and agreement if we want to get things through Parliament.”

What this means in practice is only just beginning to emerge. The worst case scenario for the SNP is that it leaves Salmond unable to put his own stamp on the government of Scotland.

Firstly, the process of passing a law in the new Parliament is likely to be far more tortuous than it used to be. So weakened is the SNP position that they admit they will invite opposition spokesmen and women to be involved in drafting bills from the very beginning, so as to tie them in at the start. It means that their own plans, as laid out in their manifesto, will be torn up before a bill is even published.

The well-liked Swinney is expected to play the role of “ambassador” - attempting to coax the other parties around into a deal. Stirling MSP Bruce Crawford is expected to be given the crucial task of running the party’s parliamentary business; crucial in a minority government. They will have the vital role of trying to find a deal. The trouble for them is that the other parties, preparing for opposition, are already declaring large chunks of their manifesto already dead in the water.

The promised referendum on independence is likely to be the most high-profile casualty. SNP chiefs insist they will press ahead with plans to publish a white paper on the plans within 100 days but, without Lib Dem backing, there is no chance it will get through. Elsewhere, the SNP’s opponents are already picking through the party’s manifesto, effectively crossing off those plans they disagree with, confining many others to never-never land.

For example, Labour MSPs have put a red line through costly plans such as the move to write-off all student debt, plans to lower class sizes and a bid to freeze council tax for the next three years.

One figure close to Jack McConnell said: “They say that they will freeze council tax for three years. Is that at the expense of reducing funds for local government? Tom McCabe [Labour’s former finance minister] has provided additional money for local authorities and we don’t want to see the SNP wreck that.”

On education, the source added: “Salmond says he wants to reduce class sizes, but if he is going to do that by taking money out of other services, then we will have to look at that seriously. We have made commitments on university funding, and we intend to honour them.”

And on the SNP’s plans to cancel the proposed Edinburgh Airport rail link (EARL), battles look certain to follow. One senior source within the Lib Dems said: “They may not want EARL, but what happens if Parliament agrees it wants it to going ahead? Are the SNP going to defy the will of Parliament?”

If the other parties in the Parliament don’t defy them, the UK government might. Plans to replace the council tax with a new local income tax are likely to founder if Whitehall refuses to play ball. “They have to find the money from London for it,” said one Executive insider. “The Treasury won’t pay for it, so they will have to drop it.”

Indeed, the only area of promised ‘consensus’ which is so far emerging is over the SNP’s plan to cut business rates for small firms, at a cost of 100m a year. SNP sources have already indicated that this plan might well be one of the first things they bring before the Parliament, aware that it at least has a chance of getting through. Apart from that, however, there is precious little else.

Consequently, the party is focusing more attention on the significant powers it has which do not require legislation to enact. Here, Salmond does have a powerful hand. The Nationalists plan to scrap quangos such as Communities Scotland. Salmond will also press ahead with a proposal to merge Scottish Natural Heritage and the Scottish Environmental Protection Agency. SNP chiefs also point out that they do not need Parliament’s approval to order major changes to Scottish Enterprise, the country’s chief jobs creation agency. And Salmond’s pledge to create a new Council of Economic Advisers - a group of ‘wise men’ who will advise him on plotting the country’s future course - will also go ahead.

The SNP’s bid to overhaul the internal organisation of the Scottish Executive - by cutting the number of ministers and departments - can also happen as planned. But none of this will protect Salmond from his weakness in the Parliament and, despite the calls for consensus, it is clear that Labour MSPs in particular are waiting to pounce.

If McConnell gets the chance to continue as Labour leader, the rivalry between him and Salmond will be fascinating to watch. McConnell is now said to be prepared to play the long game - waiting for public patience with a paralysed SNP government to run out, before acting. One MSP said: “We don’t want to be seen to be taking out Alex Salmond. We need to think long-term and watch him make mistakes. We have to give him the rope to hang himself. We don’t want to be seen as the bad guys.”

The source added: “He knows that we can bring a vote of confidence. But he doesn’t know when. That is the strong hand that we have. We will do it at the time of our choosing.”

McConnell may also be a more formidable opponent in opposition than he was when he was as First Minister, as he attempts to outfox Salmond, forming alliances in Parliament that could expose the SNP leader as a lame duck. “Jack was at his happiest when he was a wheeler-dealer in Stirling Council and in student politics. He will love this,” said one associate.

Other Labour MSPs point out that, with a whole cohort of ex-ministers on the opposition benches, they will be able to forensically expose the failings of their inexperienced new rivals, showing up just how bad they are. One said: “Alex Salmond can’t control everything. They’ll make mistakes, just as we did, but we’ll have a lot of backbenchers who will know how to take them on.”

No one is foolish enough to assume that Salmond will be easy meat. Minority government may suit him, say some civil service insiders. “In many ways, there isn’t a massive difference between running a minority government and being in opposition,” says one old hand at the Executive.

Furthermore, Salmond may be able to isolate his hated Labour enemies by cosying up to the Liberals and the Tories.

Yet the first face-off seems only a matter of time. The talk this week may be of consensus and cross-party work, but it would be wrong to assume it will last. Thus far, Salmond has won the battle, but the war has not yet begun. The new Cabinet

FIRST MINISTER
Alex Salmond
As First Minister of a slimmed-down cabinet, Salmond intends to concentrate power at the centre of his administration, with policy and strategy very much decided in Bute House. A question mark still hangs over his ability to keep up the calm, statesman-like demeanour he has adopted of late.

FINANCE AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH
John Swinney
Former leader and regarded as just too nice to win an election. The former Scottish Amicable executive is one of Holyrood’s consensus politicians, being seen as an effective chairman of the Scottish parliament’s Enterprise Committee and later as one of the most important members of Holyrood’s Finance Committee.

HEALTH AND WELL-BEING
Shona Robison
The English-born female side of one of Scottish Nationalism’s power couples. She is married to Stewart Hosie, the MP for Dundee East and former party National Secretary. She took the Holyrood Dundee East seat in 2003 in one of the few highlights of an otherwise miserable result for the Nationalists.

EDUCATION AND SKILLS
Nicola Sturgeon
Salmond is understood to believe that Sturgeon should be the next SNP leader. Formerly the education spokeswoman for the party, she faces some of the most bitter battles of the next four years. Rival parties will claim that SNP plans to scrap student debt risk becoming a bottomless financial pit. Also teachers have hinted at trouble unless they receive hefty pay rises.

JUSTICE
Kenny MacAskill
The shock winner of the SNP’s first ever seat in Edinburgh, MacAskill has undergone a New Labour-like transformation from old-style SNP fundamentalist to someone who believes in pragmatic independence-by-accumulation-of-powers. The solicitor and keep-fit fanatic wants to simplify access to consumer justice as a priority.

RURAL AFFAIRS AND THE ENVIRONMENT
Richard Lochhead
It will be a close call between Lochhead and the newly-elected MSP for Argyll and Bute, Jim Mather. Lochhead is close to Salmond, having worked in the SNP leader’s office and having run his leadership campaign in 2004. Lochhead has a high-profile in the north-east after being the party’s fisheries spokesman since 1999.

Join Eddie Barnes for a live discussion about politics - right here - from 5pm BST today. Participate by adding your question to the comments section below this article.