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Mapping out real impact of climate change

ENVIRONMENTALISTS have long warned that climate change will bring heatwaves and monsoon-like rains, causing chaos across the world, but for the first time a map has been drawn up showing how the planet will be affected.

Swiss scientists used climate-modelling techniques to work out which areas will have the biggest increases and decreases in rainfall, and where the greatest temperature rises will occur.

They then produced an aggregate map showing those parts of the Earth that will face the worst problems.

The Amazon, sub-Saharan Africa and the polar regions will experience the most dramatic changes, according to the map, which is highlighted in New Scientist magazine today, while Europe, the United States and Australia will be affected less.

The map, broken down into squares measuring 230 miles by 230 miles showing the “climate change index”, is designed to show the best estimate of what the world will be like in 2100.

Dr Martin Wild, of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich and one of the authors of a scientific paper on the map, said: “In a quick overview, you see which places have been more affected than others.

“We tried to summarise the results in a way that’s easier for people not involved in climate research to understand … based on extreme events in precipitation and temperature.

“One of the interesting things here is probably that the nations which are already quite vulnerable from an economic point of view seem to face quite significant climate change.”

While Scotland is on the lower end of the scale, Dr Wild warned this was not a reason for complacency. “It may be a little bit below the average, but I think climate change is also significant in Scotland,” he said.

“And everything is more connected on a global scale. What happens in Scotland or Switzerland depends a lot of what’s happening in other countries. It cannot be said that ‘our part of the world is fine so we don’t need to worry’.”

The index shows how one-in-20-year heatwaves or rainstorms will become more common, with up to 19 extra extreme events - which would mean they could happen every year.

The map of the additional number of hottest years shows an ominous deep red across the world. According to the projections, based on scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, temperatures previously experienced only once every 20 years will also become annual events.

Tom Downing, of the Stockholm Environment Institute and author of The Atlas of Climate Change, said: “What we take now as a surprise will be normal. Places that become hotter will face different problems to places that become wetter, but the index implies that they have the same level of risk.”