Republicans aim to win presidency by changing voting rules
A Republican push to change America’s historic voting system is faltering after a fightback by Democrats fearful that it could cost them the 2008 presidential election. Republican activists in California, the most populous state, have set in motion a proposal to end the winner-takes-all electoral college system.
The change, if it went through, would effectively hand the next election to the Republicans.
California has gone Democratic in every election since 1992, providing a bloc of 55 electoral votes, about a fifth of the 270 needed to win the presidency. The Republicans are proposing that instead of all the electoral votes going to the winner, the 55 votes be allocated on a congressional-district basis, which would give the Republicans about 20, almost certainly enough to secure the White House.
The electoral college system, in use for more than 200 years, has become increasingly contentious, particularly since 2000 when George Bush won the presidency in spite of Al Gore securing a majority of the popular vote. Political scientists and historians are divided over the merit of the system. Sympathisers say it provides a degree of stability, while opponents claim it can counter the wishes of the electorate.
The Republicans have filed to have their proposal put to a ballot in June next year. But first they have to collect 434,000 signatures by November 29. If Californians then voted in the ballot for the change, the new rules would apply in the presidential election in November 2008.
The Republican campaign to force a change appeared to hit the buffers last week when the leading figures behind it unexpectedly resigned. One said initial canvassing showed the necessary signatures were not there.
But Democrats are cautious, not persuaded that the Republicans have really given up. Supporters of Hillary Clinton, who is the frontrunner in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, are monitoring the situation.
Paul Singer, a New York hedge-fund executive and fundraiser for the Republican frontrunner, Rudy Giuliani, provided almost all the money for the California campaign, $170,000 (85,000).
Professor Robert Bennett, of the Illinois-based Northwestern University school of law and the author of Taming the Electoral College, said yesterday he did not think the Republican push was over. “I would not count it out. It seems to have suffered a setback, but they are still trying to collect signatures,” he said.
He added that he believed if it went to a ballot, it would pass.
“It is a terrible idea,” he said, adding that it would produce a partisan shift in only one state. To work fairly, it would have to be introduced in at least a few large states and preferably nationwide.
In a joint statement, two Democratic senators from California, Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein, said: “This power grab orchestrated by the Republicans is another cynical move to keep the presidency in Republican control.”
The man behind the Republican drive was Thomas Hiltachk, a Sacramento election lawyer who also works for the Republican governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger. The governor has distanced himself from the plan, saying: “In principle, I don’t like to change the rules in the middle of the game.”
The Democrats attempted to introduce a similar reform in North Carolina this year in the hope of picking up seven electoral college votes.
But they quickly abandoned their efforts when they realised they would be establishing a precedent: the gain in North Carolina would be swamped by the losses in California.
How it works
The electoral college is the system that the US has used for more than 200 years to choose its presidents. There are 538 electoral college votes at stake and a candidate needs to secure 270 to win the White House. Whichever candidate wins a majority in a state is awarded all that state’s electoral college votes. California, for instance, has 55 electoral college votes. If they had been divided according to the number of congressional districts won in the previous presidential election, George Bush would have had 22 of these. But under the existing system, as winner, John Kerry was awarded all 55 electoral college votes. Only Maine and Nebraska have opted out of this system. Maine since 1972 and Nebraska since 1992 have a system in which their electoral college votes are divided according to who wins individual congressional districts. This is the system that California Republicans want to see adopted
