Scots population poised to hit an all-time high
SCOTLAND’S population is set to rise over the next 25 years to its highest-ever level, according to new projections by the Registrar General for Scotland.
The number of people living in the country is projected to rise from 5.12 million in 2006 to a high of 5.37 million in 2031, before slowly declining and eventually falling below the five million mark in 2076.
However, that is fully 40 years later than experts previously thought the population would bottom out at that level.
Registrar General Duncan Macniven said: “The recent upswing in births and migration has paved the way for continued gradual increase in Scotland’s population until it reaches almost 5.4 million in 2031 - well above its previous peak of 5.24 million in 1974.
“We will still be an ageing nation - in 2031, we expect there will be 18 people over 75 for every ten today.”
The report also shows that the number of under-16s is projected to fall by seven per cent to 0.86 million in 2031, while the number of people of working age is projected to increase slightly to 3.23 million.
Meanwhile, the number of pensioners is expected to shoot up by around 31 per cent from 0.98 million in 2006 to 1.29 million in 2031.
This is the main reason why the dependency ratio - the proportion of people aged under 16 or over pensionable age compared to those of working age - is projected to rise from around 59 per 100 in 2006 to 67 per 100 in 2031.
However, Scottish Finance Minister John Swinney welcomed the forecasts. “An increasing population has the potential to boost Scotland’s economic growth and help our nation prosper,” he said.
“Although we must not be complacent, a larger working age population can enhance the productivity of our economy and create increased consumer demand.”
New figures for Edinburgh and the Lothians will not be released until January, however, previous statistics show the region has seen some of the largest population increases in the country.
The city’s population rose by 5660 or 1.1 per cent in 2005-6, to 463,510. This was mainly due to people moving to the city, with a net migration gain of 4775, more than double that of Glasgow.
East and West Lothian saw similar percentage rises, compared with a rise of just 0.4 per cent in Scotland over all.
Births slightly outnumbered deaths in the Lothians, bucking the national trend.
There was a bigger proportion of working age people in the Capital - 71 per cent, compared with 67 per cent nationwide.
Linda Fabiani, Scottish Minister for Europe and External Affairs, added: “The projected growth in Scotland’s population to 5.37 million by 2031 is excellent news and has been helped by increases in migration.”
While Scotland’s population is projected to fall after 2031, population growth in England and Wales is set to continue unabated.
The total UK population will grow to more than 70 million over the next 24 years, according to predictions based on a range of factors which include immigration, fertility and average life-spans.
They are the first to use data on immigration which was recently increased by the ONS.
Last month, the organisation said the number of people migrating to the UK had increased by 45,000 a year to 190,000.
